Storm Warning 111, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 081251
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AST THU NOV 8 2007

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-090300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 964 MB LOW NEAR 55N 166W INTENSIFIES TO 961 MB THU AFTERNOON NEAR
58N 163W AND THEN WEAKENS TO 969 MB AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS TO 59N 158W
FRI NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN BERING TO THE
ALEUTIANS BY FRI MORNING.
$$

PKZ411-090300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AST THU NOV 8 2007

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 14 FT.  
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-090300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AST THU NOV 8 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 TO 40 KT...STRONGEST EAST OF 176W. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-090300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AST THU NOV 8 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...EAST OF 174W...N WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. N WIND 20 KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT...HIGHEST EAST OF
174W. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 14 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-090300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AST THU NOV 8 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 14 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST WED NOV 7 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE GFS MODEL SEEMS TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT
CHOICE. PREFER HOW THE GFS/UKMET HANDLES TRIPLE POINT DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF THU NIGHT AND MOVES TO THE NORTHERN GULF FRI
AFTN/NIGHT. GFS INITIALIZATION ON CURRENT CENTERS OVER BRISTOL BAY
AND NEXT STORM SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS IS VERY GOOD. GFS IS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH STORM ENTERING THE SOUTHERN GULF SAT NIGHT...THOUGH
THIS RUN IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER. MODELS STILL HAVING
PROBLEMS IN THE MID-LONG TERM WITH SOLUTIONS OVER THE BERING SEA.

.SYNOPSIS...
980S LOW OVER SW ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON MOVES OVER THE INTERIOR
TONIGHT AND WEAKENS. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE
DELTA...KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...SOUTHERN COOK INLET...TO OVER KODIAK
ISLAND MOVES THROUGH NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT. EXPECT FRONT WILL MOVE
TO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN/NORTH GULF COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
DISSIPATE OVER CANADA THU. 970S LOW CENTER SOUTH OF 50N 172W THIS
AFTERNOON DEEPENS INTO THE 960S AS IT CROSSES UNALASKA EARLY THU
MORNING. CENTER WILL MOVE SE OF CAPE NEWENHAM IN THE UPPER 950S/LOWER
960S FRI. CENTER LIKELY AND DRIFT NEAR KODIAK ISLAND AS A TRIPLE
POINT LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF FRI NIGHT. FRONTAL TROUGH
ASSOCIATED ALEUTIAN LOW MOVES TO SOUTH OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND
OVER THE CENTRAL AK PEN EARLY THU MORNING AND INTO SW ALASKA/SOUTHERN
COOK INLET...TO OVER KODIAK THU AFTERNOON. FRONT STALLS OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THU/THU NIGHT AS A TRIPLE POINT CENTER DEVELOPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.EAST...EXPECT SNOW AND RAIN WITH AS FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT. RAIN MAINLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND THE KENAI
PEN. EXPECT FAIR SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND ZONE 131
WITH FRONTAL TROUGH AND SOUTHERNLY SLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS.
MAY SEE BRIEF DRYING THU MORNING BEFORE APPROACHING FRONT BRINGS
RAIN/SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS THU AFTERNOON.

GUSTY GAP WINDS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY WILL DIMINISH AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS LIKELY OVER THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP AGAIN
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA/GULF THU AND CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING.

.WEST...SNOW AND RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS LOW AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL TROUGH CLEAR SW ALASKA TONIGHT. STRONG WIND CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP OVER UNALASKA BY EVENING AND SPREAD TO THE AK PEN AND BRISTOL
BAY OVERNIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY TO HOLD OVER MUCH OF THE EAST
ALEUTIANS..AK PEN..SW ALASKA...AND BRISTOL BAY THROUGH FRI. THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT WINDS THU AND FRI WILL BE ON THE WEST AND SOUTHERN FLANKS
OF THE LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY. APPROACHING FRONT BRINGS RAIN TO
UNALASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND THE AK PEN TONIGHT. EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW
TO SPREAD TO THE BRISTOL BAY COAST EARLY THU. PRECIPITATION MAY
INITIALLY START AS SNOW OVER BRISTOL...BUT SHOULD RAPIDLY CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN OR MIX WITH WARM ADVECTION THU. SNOW OVER THE DELTA THU WILL
LIKELY MIX WITH RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BREAK UP
INTO SNOW SHOWERS(EXCEPT RAIN/SNOW BRISTOL BAY) OVER MOST OF SW
ALASKA THU NIGHT AND FRI.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...LIKELY CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS
POINT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS...155 165 170.
         GALES 120 130 132 138 140 141 150 160 171 172 179 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC NOV 07