Gale Warning 626, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 082319
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT SAT SEP 8 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-091400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN A LOW IN THE BERING
AND A HIGH SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF THROUGH SUN NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD OVER THE GULF MON.
$$

PKZ120-091400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT SAT SEP 8 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-091400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT SAT SEP 8 2007

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-091400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT SAT SEP 8 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S
OF SEAL ISLAND. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-091400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT SAT SEP 8 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-091400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT SAT SEP 8 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-091400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT SAT SEP 8 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-091400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT SAT SEP 8 2007

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-091400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT SAT SEP 8 2007

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED AND THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-091400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT SAT SEP 8 2007

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED AND THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 091152
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT SUN SEP 9 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-100200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN A LOW IN THE BERING
AND A HIGH SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF THROUGH MON NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD OVER THE GULF MON.
$$

PKZ120-100200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT SUN SEP 9 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-100200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT SUN SEP 9 2007

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-100200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT SUN SEP 9 2007

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S
OF SEAL ISLAND. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-100200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT SUN SEP 9 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-100200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT SUN SEP 9 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-100200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT SUN SEP 9 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-100200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT SUN SEP 9 2007

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-100200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT SUN SEP 9 2007

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-100200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT SUN SEP 9 2007

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED AND THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.   

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
530 AM ADT SAT SEP 8 2007

.ANALYSIS...
STACKED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING IS WEAKENING WITH A TRIPLE POINT
LOW OVER NUNIVAK ISLAND. A STRONG FRONT IS STRETCHED FROM THE SEWARD
PENINSULA TO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE MAINLAND. THIS FRONT HAS
BROUGHT AREAS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST GULF
COAST. THE PACKED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE BERING
LOW HAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WARNING LEVEL WINDS ALONG
TURNAGAIN ARM TODAY AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS THOUGH GAPS ELSEWHERE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT UNTIL A LOW NEAR RUSSIA DROPS INTO
THE BERING LATER TODAY. THE DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES INTO THE
DISSIPATING TYPHOON FITOW TRAVELING EAST INTO THE BERING DURING THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. UKMET SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE TOO SLOW WITH THE
TYPHOON WHICH SHOULD STILL HAVE SUFFICIENT ENERGY. ECMWF AND THE 06Z
NAM SEEMS TO FOLLOW THE GFS SOLUTION...SO HAVE USED GFS AS GUIDANCE
FOR THE FORECAST IN THE WEST. SOME NAM WAS USED FOR SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA AS IT WAS HANDLING THE DETAILED WIND EVENTS OVER LAND BETTER.

.UPPER LEVELS...
THE PERSISTENT PATTERN OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BERING AND A RIDGE
OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN CANADA REMAINS TODAY. UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN RUSSIA WITH A STRONG VORTICITY MAX AND JET AROUND THE BOTTOM
OF THE TROUGH IS WORKING ITS WAY DOWN INTO THE BERING. THE STRONG
SHORT WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH THE DISSIPATING TYPHOON FITOW AND SWING
IT OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND INTENSIFY THE LOW OVER THE BERING. THIS UPPER LOW WILL
REMAIN SPINNING IN THE BERING THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN ITS ENERGY SWINGS
IT TO THE NORTH TOWARDS THE BERING STRAIT. THIS WILL FLATTEN OUT THE
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN MAINLAND. THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AS THE MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX LATER THIS MORNING
ALONG THE GULF COAST TO ALLOW THE VERY STRONG GAP WINDS TO DECREASE.
PROXIMITY OF THE JET IS KEEPING WIND SHEAR IN MOST TERMINAL FORECASTS
THROUGH TODAY. RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE OLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS.
TUESDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND RAIN AND STRONG WINDS AS THE FRONT
FROM THE LOW ENHANCED BY THE OLD TYPHOON REACHES SOUTHCENTRAL.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS THE OLD FRONT MOVES TO
THE NORTH AND EAST AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS LEFT BEHIND. HIGH
SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SHORES FROM HOOPER BAY DOWN
TO TOGIAK BAY IN RESPONSE TO THE CONTINUOUS SOUTHWEST FETCH. A SMALL
BREAK IN THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR INLAND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FROM THE GULF. THE NEW LOW FORMING IN THE BERING
ENHANCED BY THE OLD TYPHOON WILL PUSH ITS FRONT ONSHORE MONDAY. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP RAIN AND SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

ALEUTIANS...STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH IN
FRONT OF THE BERING LOW TODAY AS IT ALSO DIMINISHES. HOWEVER GALE
FORCE WINDS WILL COME OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE LOW AS A SLIGHT
RIDGE BUILDS IN BEFORE THE NEXT LOW ALLOWING SLIGHT CLEARING ALONG
THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS TODAY. HOWEVER THE LOW OVER RUSSIA
WILL DROP DOWN SOUTH AND BRING MORE RAIN AND CLOUDS TONIGHT. THE
DISSIPATED TYPHOON WILL NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SUNDAY TO INCREASE
WINDS UP TO GALE FORCE...THEN TO STORM FORCE FOR THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOFS MONDAY. A BRIEF BREAK SHOULD HAPPEN AGAIN FOR
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A NEW LOW IS
PROGGED TO SLIDE ALONG THE ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101 125
      ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY 155
MARINE...GALE 120 172 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LR SEP 07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
729 AM ADT SAT SEP 08 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0336 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE ANCHORAGE          61.10N 149.02W
09/08/2007  M77 MPH                             AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            GUST MEASURED AT MCHUGH CREEK RWIS SITE ON THE SEWARD
            HIGHWAY.

&&

DGV