Gale Warning 625, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 082316
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT SAT SEP 8 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-091400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 984 MB LOW 100 NM SOUTH OF GAMBELL WILL WEAKEN TO 992 MB IN THE
CHUKCHI SEA SUN AFTERNOON. A 989 MB LOW 300 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA TO
DEEPEN TO 976 MB 300 NM NORTHEAST OF SHEMYA SUN AFTERNOON THEN
DISSIPATE MON AFTERNOON. A 994 MB MOVES TO 350 NM SOUTHWEST OF ADAK
SUN AFTERNOON THEN MERGES WITH THE DISSIPATING BERING LOW AND DEEPENS
TO 973 MB 150 NM NORTHWEST OF SAINT PAUL MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-091400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM ADT SAT SEP 8 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-091400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM ADT SAT SEP 8 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-091400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM ADT SAT SEP 8 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-091400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM ADT SAT SEP 8 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-091400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM ADT SAT SEP 8 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-091400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM ADT SAT SEP 8 2007

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-091400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM ADT SAT SEP 8 2007

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-091400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM ADT SAT SEP 8 2007

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-091400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM ADT SAT SEP 8 2007

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ176-091400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM ADT SAT SEP 8 2007

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-091400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM ADT SAT SEP 8 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-091400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM ADT SAT SEP 8 2007

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT FRI SEP 7 2007

.ANALYSIS...
LARGE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL BERING WITH
A STRONG FRONT MOVING TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A STRONG VORT MAX AND 140 KT JET. THERE ARE
ALSO STRONG WINDS ALONG THE FRONT WITH MODERATE PRECIPITATION. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. STRONG WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS MANY AREAS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WITH THE FRONT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. A MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT.

.MODEL DISCUSSION AND UPPER LEVELS...
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE GFS AND NAM A BIT SLOW ON THE SHORT WAVE IN THE
BASE OF THE BERING LOW NEAR ADAK. UKMET A BIT FASTER WITH THIS
FEATURE. THE 18Z NAM SEEMS TO BE CATCHING UP TO THE FEATURE A BIT.
SO...THIS FORECAST LOOKS TO BE REASONABLE FOR THE SHORT TERM. EARLY
FORECASTS ARE LEANING TO THIS SOLUTION AS WELL. AFTER THE INITIAL 48
HOURS GFS AND NAM DIFFER ON THE POSITIONS OF A LOW DROPPING INTO THE
NORTHWEST BERING AND THE HANDLING OF THE DISSIPATING TYPHOON FITOW
INTO THE BERING. THE GFS AND ECMWF MATCH UP WELL THROUGH TUESDAY AS
WELL AS THE ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE GFS THEN IS PREFERRED ESPECIALLY
DEALING WITH THE INFUSION OF THE DISSIPATING TYPHOON FITOW SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL BERING.

FAIRLY CONSISTENT MEAN PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A TROUGH OVER
THE BERING AND A RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN CANADA. AN
UPPER LOW IS LOCATED NEAR ADAK WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE GULF. A
STRONG WAVE WITH AN ASSOCIATED 130 KT JET WILL MOVE AROUND THIS LOW
AND ROTATE A FRONT AROUND THIS LOW AND EVENTUALLY PULL THE LOW NORTH
TO THE BERING STRAIT SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW TO DROP INTO THE NORTHWEST
BERING SATURDAY AND DROP INTO THE WESTERN BERING SUNDAY. THE
DISSIPATING TYPHOON TO INTERACT WITH THIS LOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
INTENSIFY THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING. THIS LOW TO REMAIN IN THE
BERING THROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A MODERATE TO STRONG MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO REMAIN OVER THE MAINLAND. UNCERTAINTY STARTS TO
CREEP IN AFTER TUESDAY WITH HOW THIS LOW MOVES OUT OF THE BERING. THE
RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN MID WEEK INTRODUCING THE UNCERTAINTY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
ALEUTIANS...
THE LARGE LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD SAINT PAUL AND DISSIPATE SATURDAY WITH
A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT MOVING TO THE STRAIT. GALE FORCE
WINDS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND DEVELOPING LOW TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING WITH MODERATE PRECIPITATION. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER FOR THE WESTERN BERING BEHIND THE LOW TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW AND OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL
DROP INTO NORTHWEST BERING AT THIS TIME THEN DROPS INTO THE WESTERN
BERING AND MERGES WITH THE REMNANTS OF TYPHOON FITOW SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING VERY STRONG WINDS TO THE BERING AS THE LOW BOMBS. MAX
GALES TO STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS LOW ON SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
STRONG FRONT MOVING ONSHORE THIS EVENING WITH RAIN AND WINDS
BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE WINDS AND RAIN TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. WILL INCLUDE STRONG WIND
HEADLINES FOR BRISTOL BAY AS A RESULT. SOME WIND SHEAR PROBLEMS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT TONIGHT. A MODERATE SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW TO
REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY. ENOUGH FLOW TO PRODUCE HIGH SEAS
OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND COMBINED WITH MAX TIDES HAVE PROMPTED A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR WESTERN BRISTOL BAY THROUGH THE COAST OF THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO THE BERING
STRAIT SUNDAY RAIN WILL TURN TO SHOWERS AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH EVEN FURTHER MONDAY EVEN THOUGH WE REMAIN UNDER
A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW BUT JUST IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH A LARGE LOW
OUT IN THE CENTRAL/WESTERN BERING.

SOUTH CENTRAL...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITH ENCROACHING
WARM FRONT ENTERING THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF AS A RESULT. THE GRADIENT OVER THE TURNAGAIN
ARM HAS INCREASED AS WELL. THIS GRADIENT TO BECOME QUITE STRONG
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. COMBINED WITH THE FRONT AND STRONG
WINDS AT 850 MB AND 925 MB AND PROXIMITY OF THE JET...WILL MOST
LIKELY UPGRADE THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE FOR SATURDAY. THE FRONT TO REACH THE COAST THIS EVENING AND
SPREAD PRECIP AND MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND LATE TONIGHT AND FARTHER INLAND TOMORROW. WITH
THE STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT ANCHORAGE AND PALMER AND
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN KENAI TO EXPERIENCE SOME DOWNSLOPE FOR LESS
PRECIP. AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TOMORROW...RAIN WILL SPREAD OVER
THE DRIER AREAS. THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT BUT A
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO REMAIN. THEREFORE SHOWERS TO REMAIN OVER
MANY AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GALES TO END OVER THE MARINE
AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WILL BE BETWEEN WAVES FOR MONDAY FOR ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OF A LOW IN THE BERING AND A RIDGE
OVER EASTERN ALASKA LOOKS TO HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY. THE RIDGE TO BREAK
DOWN IN MID WEEK. THIS WOULD GENERALLY KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH WINDS DECREASING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING ZONE 101
         HIGH SURF ADVISORY ZONE 155 AND 161
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 150 160 165 170 175 176 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN SEP 07