Gale Warning 564, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 191151
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT SUN AUG 19 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-200200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 989 MB LOW IN BRISTOL BAY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND
DISSIPATE MONDAY EVENING.  A 996 MB LOW 100 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA
WILL MOVE TO 150 NM NORTH OF ADAK MONDAY NIGHT AND WEAKEN TO 999 MB.
$$

PKZ150-200200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM ADT SUN AUG 19 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-200200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM ADT SUN AUG 19 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-200200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM ADT SUN AUG 19 2007

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-200200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT SUN AUG 19 2007

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-200200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM ADT SUN AUG 19 2007

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-200200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM ADT SUN AUG 19 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT BERING SIDE TO 11 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT BERING SIDE TO 8 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT BERING SIDE TO 7 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-200200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM ADT SUN AUG 19 2007

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT BY THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-200200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM ADT SUN AUG 19 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT BERING SIDE TO 12 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT BERING SIDE TO 8 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT BERING SIDE TO 7 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT BERING SIDE TO 7 FT PACIFIC
SIDE FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-200200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM ADT SUN AUG 19 2007

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-200200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM ADT SUN AUG 19 2007

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT BERING SIDE TO 7 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-200200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM ADT SUN AUG 19 2007

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-200200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM ADT SUN AUG 19 2007

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
115 PM ADT SAT AUG 18 2007

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...IN THE UPPER LEVELS THERE IS A RIDGE
FROM THE SOUTHERN YUKON ACROSS INTERIOR ALASKA TO THE CHUKCHI SEA.
A COUPLE CLOSED LOWS DOMINATE THE BERING REGION WITH ONE OVERHEAD
OF DUTCH HARBOR AND ANOTHER OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. A NEARLY
ZONAL UPPER JET EXTENDS EASTWARD ALONG 47N SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS
AND THEN CURVES NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.
THERE IS GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THIS AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THIS AREA (INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND THE WESTERN GULF) IS
EXPERIENCING THE BEST LIFT. KODIAK IS OBSERVING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STEADY RAIN FROM KODIAK ISLAND TO
BRISTOL BAY. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A LOW JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS UPPER CENTER. A TIGHT GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THIS LOW COMPLEX IS PRODUCING NORTHWESTERLY GALES OVER THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THERE ARE ALSO GALES FROM THE KODIAK ISLAND
WATERS TO BRISTOL BAY...AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT. A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GULF TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH FAIRLY GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY,
THERE IS ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY GAP WINDS AND DOWNSLOPING. THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH LIFT ALOFT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A FEW SPRINKLES
ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. GOOD
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE FETCH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY FOR
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE WEST SIDE OF COOK INLET. INLAND
WILL REMAIN DRY (BUT CLOUDY) UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA/AKPENN...MODELS INDICATE A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW
WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE AKPENN

IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER CENTER. A NEW
UPPER CENTER THEN FORMS OVER THIS AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT CENTER
AND TRACKS BACK NORTHWARD TO BRISTOL BAY LATE SUNDAY AND WESTWARD
INTO THE BERING MONDAY. THE END RESULT WILL BE PERIODS OF RAIN FOR
BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WITH DIMINISHING PRECIP AS YOU
HEAD INLAND TO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE KAMCHATKA LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD TO THE
CENTRAL BERING MONDAY AND MERGE WITH THE LOW COMING FROM THE EAST
TO FORM A SINGLE LOW CENTERED NEAR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS ON TUESDAY.

ASIDE FROM NORTHWESTERLY GALES OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LOOSE. SO JUST THE NORMAL CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF RAIN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
BERING LOW MOVING INTO GULF AND CONTINUING ON TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA
WHILE A NEW CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO THE BERING. THIS WOULD MEAN A
SHOWERY MID WEEK FOR THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD TO THE WEEKEND....WHILE THE BERING WOULD DRY
OUT MID WEEK AND THEN NEXT STORM WOULD MOVE IN LATE IN THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 130 172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB AUG 07