Gale Warning 563, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 190015 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT SAT AUG 18 2007

CORRECTED 130

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-191400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND AND THE WESTERN GULF
SAT NIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON SUN. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE 
EASTERN GULF TO NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH SUN.
$$

PKZ120-191400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT SAT AUG 18 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT...STRONGEST SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO
9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-191400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT SAT AUG 18 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-191400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT SAT AUG 18 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E WIND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGHER GUSTS NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. HIGHER GUSTS NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE.
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-191400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT SAT AUG 18 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-191400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT SAT AUG 18 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS BUILDING
TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-191400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT SAT AUG 18 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S WIND 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-191400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT SAT AUG 18 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-191400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT SAT AUG 18 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS SOUTH OF ANCHOR POINT.
SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT...HIGHEST SOUTH OF ANCHOR POINT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-191400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT SAT AUG 18 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 191142
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT SUN AUG 19 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-200200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS GULF OF ALASKA SUNDAY AND DISSIPATE IN THE
EASTERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ120-200200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT SUN AUG 19 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-200200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT SUN AUG 19 2007

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-200200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT SUN AUG 19 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-200200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT SUN AUG 19 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-200200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT SUN AUG 19 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-200200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT SUN AUG 19 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-200200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT SUN AUG 19 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-200200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT SUN AUG 19 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-200200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT SUN AUG 19 2007

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
520 AM ADT SAT AUG 18 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GFS REMAINS THE MODEL OF CHOICE WITH ITS HANDLING OF THE BERING LOWS
AND ITS AGREEMENT WITH ENSEMBLES. USED THE NEW RUN AS GUIDANCE
THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS...THEN TRENDED TOWARD THE PREVIOUS RUN AS ITS
PERSISTENCE IS POOR ON THE LOW NEARING THE ALASKA PENINSULA SUNDAY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LOW NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA IS MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS. UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS IS MOVING
EAST AND ABSORBING THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN BRISTOL BAY
ZONE. RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STRETCHES NORTH OVER THE ALCAN
BORDER AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE BEAUFORT SEA.
AT THE SURFACE...A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING IS EXTENDING ITS
OCCLUDED FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AKPEN. A RIDGE IS HOLDING STEADY ALONG
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST. A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH SITS OVER THE
INTERIOR. THIS TROUGH AND THE UPPER LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY HAS HELPED
SUSTAIN THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND NORTH THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER KODIAK THIS MORNING THEN
REACH THE KENAI PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE NORTHEAST
STRETCHING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
REACH GALE FORCE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES AGAINST THE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL AREAS IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
WET REGIME THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE CONDITIONS SPREADING
INLAND TOWARDS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN IN THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
COASTAL ZONES WILL SEE MORE STEADY RAIN WHEREAS INLAND ZONES WILL SEE
MORE OF A SHOWERY PATTERN.

WESTERN MAINLAND...THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH NORTH OUT OF THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY AS A VORTICITY MAX FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY SWINGS
NORTH. AS THE FRONT PUSHES NORTH ALONG THE AKPEN...EXPECT GUSTY GAP
WINDS TO BE FUNNELED THROUGH THE ALEUTIAN RANGE OVER BRISTOL BAY.
MOST OF THE FRONTAL ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO BRISTOL BAY AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND VALLEY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
HOLDS TO THE NORTH. THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS LOOK TO REMAIN OVER
THE EASTERN BERING AND BRISTOL BAY AREA...THEREFORE EXPECT GENERALLY
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

BERING/ALEUTIANS...THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL
HEAD SOUTH TOWARD THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND MOVE TOWARD THE BRISTOL
BAY LOW AND MERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE BERING AND
ALEUTIANS IN A RAINY AND CLOUDY REGIME FOR SEVERAL DAYS. GALE FORCE
WINDS WILL BE AHEAD OF AND DESCENDING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
CURRENT CENTRAL BERING LOW TO AFFECT BRISTOL BAY AND THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS TODAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A GENERALLY CLOUDY AND SHOWERY PATTERN IS PROGGED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK AS THE BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING LOOKS TO HOLD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 130 160 172 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LR AUG 07