Gale Warning 516, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 091139
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT MON JUL 9 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-100200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 996 MB LOW 650 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK WILL MOVE TO 190 NM SOUTH 
OF KODIAK AT 1000 MB TUE MORNING AND THEN TO 160 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KODIAK EARLY WED MORNING AT 1002 MB. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE
FROM ACROSS THE GULF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON MON AND DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES INLAND MON NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-100200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT MON JUL 9 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-100200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT MON JUL 9 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-100200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT MON JUL 9 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-100200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT MON JUL 9 2007

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-100200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT MON JUL 9 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-100200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT MON JUL 9 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-100200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT MON JUL 9 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-100200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT MON JUL 9 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO SE 35 KT OUT OF TURNAGAIN ARM.
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED AND THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-100200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT MON JUL 9 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO SW 15 KT BY AFTERNOON.
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
145 PM ADT SUN JUL 8 2007

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...BLOCKING HIGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE BERING
SEA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA AND NORTHWEST CANADA. THE
UPPER JET IS ZONAL ALONG 40N BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD AT AROUND
150W. SEVERAL CLOSED LOWS ARE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE JET WITH THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT ONE NEAR 50N 160W. A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
ELONGATED NEAR HERE LAST NIGHT AND A SECONDARY CENTER HAS TAKEN OVER
FURTHER TO THE NORTH. JUST EAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD FETCH OF DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE GULF.

FARTHER NORTH OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND UPPER SHORT-WAVES CONTINUE
TO MOVE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. ONE BATCH OF SHOWERS IS
CURRENTLY EXITING INTO BRISTOL BAY. MORE SHOWERS EXTEND ALONG THE
ALASKA RANGE AND NORTHWARD INTO THE INTERIOR. MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL
IS CURRENTLY DRY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AS SEEN IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY MOST OF THE BREAKS IN CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED
TO FILL IN WITH CUMULUS. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS
IN PLACE. BACK TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER WAVES THERE IS SOME CLEARING
OVER THE WESTERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND STRATUS OVER MUCH OF THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA. WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW THIS STRATUS WILL
BE SLOW TO BREAK UP TODAY. STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUES OVER MOST OF
THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...LARGEST MODEL DISCREPANCIES CONTINUE TO LIE
WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND AND THE AKPENN. AT
18Z ALL MODELS DEPICTED AN ELONGATED SURFACE LOW CENTER AND TRIPLE
POINT AS THE SYSTEM HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO OCCLUDE. HOWEVER...WHEN
OVERLAID ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NONE OF THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE THE
MULTIPLE CENTERS IN THE CORRECT LOCATION. STILL...THEY ARE ALL IN
THE GENERAL REGION AND THERE WILL BE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST
AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE GULF. THE PROGRESSION OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE
LIES IN THE UPPER LEVELS...GFS SHOWS A STRONG VORTMAX ROTATING AROUND
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW LATE TONIGHT AND TRACKING NORTHWARD
TO YAKUTAT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND
ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER AND INSTEAD OF TRACKING IT ONSHORE WARPS IT
BACK INTO THE UPPER CIRCULATION OVER THE GULF. THE UKMET...AS USUAL
IS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS. BECAUSE OF THIS THE GFS INDICATES
MUCH MORE VERTICAL LIFT AND A LOT MORE QPF ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
INLAND TO THE COPPER BASIN (ON THE ORDER OF ONE HALF INCH). FOR NOW
WILL NOT BUY INTO THE GFS SOLUTION. INSTEAD WILL TAKE A BLEND FOR QPF
AMOUNTS. FOR PROBABILITIES...EVEN WITH UPPER LEVELS IN QUESTION FRONT
WILL APPROACH NORTH TO WEST GULF COAST MONDAY NIGHT...SO CATEGORICAL
RAIN IS APPROPRIATE. INLAND...WILL STICK WITH LOWER POPS FOR NOW.

ELSEWHERE...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AND A FEW
BREAKS IN CLOUDS EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN (WHICH LOOKS TO BE MORE UNSTABLE) AND
ALONG MOUNTAIN TOPS. COULD ALSO SEE A THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE ALASKA
RANGE WHERE VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS TOWERING CU. WITH ONLY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF SUNLIGHT
LATER THIS EVENING. BY MONDAY MORNING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS
ALREADY SWINGING TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL...SO NOT MUCH CHANCE FOR A
BREAK IN THE CLOUDS. RAIN WILL SPREAD TO KODIAK ISLAND EARLY MONDAY
AND TO THE NORTH GULF COAST BY AFTERNOON WHILE SHOWERS WILL DOMINATE
INLAND. WITH THE UPPER LOW SITTING OVER THE GULF...THREAT OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...STRONGEST UPPER WAVES ARE MOVING SOUTHWEST FROM
THE INTERIOR ACROSS THE EASTERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND INTO BRISTOL
BAY. THERE ARE THICK CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA...BUT THERE IS
CLEARING OVER THE FAR NORTHERN KUSKOKWIM AND A CLEAR AREA OVER THE
WESTERN KUSKOKWIM AND AHKLUN MOUNTAINS. WITH ANOTHER WAVE COMING
FROM THE NORTH EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO GET GOING BY LATE EVENING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS OCCURRED LAST
NIGHT...SOME STORMS WILL ADVECT FROM THE INTERIOR...BUT ALSO EXPECT
SOME TO FORM NEAR THE CURRENT CLOUD/NO CLOUD BOUNDARY. STRATUS OVER
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND PUSH OFFSHORE AS FLOW VEERS TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THE PACIFIC
SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TONIGHT MEAN FLOW OVER SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO
VEER TO THE EAST...SO ANY REMNANT STORMS WILL BE PUSHED WESTWARD
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE PUSHED
NORTH AND WEST ON MONDAY SO THE AXIS OF CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG
THE KUSKOKWIM MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE DELTA WHILE MORE STABLE AIR
INFILTRATES EASTERN AREAS. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE GULF LOW...SO BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTH AND WESTERN
AREAS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA. BY WEDNESDAY...DEFINITELY LOOKS LIKE A
MORE STABLE AIR MASS WITH SHOWERS.

BERING SEA/AKPENN...RIDGE GRADUALLY GETS PUSHED ON FROM ALL
SIDES...WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF AND SPREADING SHORTWAVES
WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN BERING...A SHORT-WAVE DROPPING DOWN ACROSS
THE BERING STRAIT TUESDAY...A SHORT-WAVE MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF
RUSSIA...AND AN UPPER LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THESE
WILL HELP WEAKEN THE RIDGE SO THAT IT BECOMES SMALLER AND SMALLER.
UNTIL THEN...CONTINUED STRATUS AND FOG. EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
SOUTHERN AKPENN WILL ALSO SEE PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS AS MOISTURE
FROM SOUTHWEST ALASKA MOVES SOUTHWEST ACROSS BRISTOL BAY AND THE
EASTERN BERING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...UPPER LOW SITS OVER KODIAK ISLAND REGION
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...SO CONTINUED CLOUDY AND SHOWERY REGIME
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. OUT WEST...RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
FINALLY BE COMPLETELY GONE BY THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING A SYSTEM TO
DROP OUT OF RUSSIA INTO THE WESTERN BERING AND BRING A SHOT OF
PRECIP AND STRONGER WINDS TO THE REGION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120 130.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB JUL 07