Gale Warning 502, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 051241 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT TUE JUN 5 2007

CORRECTED ZONES 130 AND 132 HEADLINES

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-060200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 998 MB LOW NEAR CAPE SITKINAK WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF BEHIND THE
LOW TODAY AND REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH THURSDAY. A 994
MB LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES TO 250 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY
BY WED MORNING AND OVER KODIAK ISLAND WED NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING
OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA THU.

$$

PKZ120-060200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT TUE JUN 5 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-060200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT TUE JUN 5 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-060200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT TUE JUN 5 2007

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-060200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT TUE JUN 5 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-060200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT TUE JUN 5 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-060200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT TUE JUN 5 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-060200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT TUE JUN 5 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-060200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT TUE JUN 5 2007

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-060200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT TUE JUN 5 2007

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT MON JUN 4 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS AND NAM IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE
SYSTEMS IN THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.  GFS
SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH NECP/MPC 12Z ANALYSIS. TUE
SOLUTIONS FOR GULF SYSTEM ARE QUALITATIVELY SIMILAR...LOW DISSIPATES
IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN KODIAK ISLAND.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...POLAR JET REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN 40N
AND 50N WITH 80-100 KT WINDS. JET MAKES A TURN INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA AROUND 125W BUT MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST ON WED AS NEXT SYSTEM
DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...IN THE SOUTHWEST EXPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AS
REMNANT OF FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CONSIDERABLE SUN WITH
SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON TUE AND WED.

AS LOW IN THE GULF CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD KODIAK...SHOULD SEE
INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST.  THIS
SHOULD PRODUCE MODEST WINDS THROUGH THE TERRAIN GAPS MON NIGHT.  HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TUE AFTERNOON.

LOW IN CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SLOWLY DISSIPATES OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS
AS IT ROTATES BETWEEN ADAK AND DUTCH HARBOR.  IT FINALLY MOVES OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST ON THU AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MODELS INDICATING A SECOND SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN
THE SOUTHERN GULF ON WED AND MOVING UP OVER KODIAK BY MID DAY ON THU.
STRENGTH SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 985-990 MB.  LOOKING VERY SIMILAR
TO CURRENT SYSTEM.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA ON WED.
LOOKS LIKE THERMAL TROUGH TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ON WED WHICH MIGHT
ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN ZONES.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 350...120...130
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JUN 07