Gale Warning 501, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 050433 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
830 PM ADT MON JUN 4 2007

UPDATED ZONE 121 132 140 AND 141 

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-051400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 988 MB LOW 275 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY MOVES 125 SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY EARLY TUE MORNING THEN DISSIPATES OVER
SHELIKOF STRAIT ON TUE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF
ON TUE BEHIND THE LOW AND REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH WED
EVENING. A 989 MB LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES A POSITION 125 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-051400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT MON JUN 4 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT...STRONGEST WINDS WEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND.
SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-051400-
RESURRECTION BAY
830 PM ADT MON JUN 4 2007

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING. VARIABLE
WIND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-051400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT MON JUN 4 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DECREASING TO 15 KT AROUND MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.THU AND FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-051400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT MON JUN 4 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DECREASING TO 15 KT AROUND MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-051400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT MON JUN 4 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-051400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
830 PM ADT MON JUN 4 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE WIND 15 KT SOUTH OF
DANGEROUS CAPE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 20 KT BY THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-051400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT MON JUN 4 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-051400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
830 PM ADT MON JUN 4 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SE GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF TURNAGAIN ARM.
SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SE GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF TURNAGAIN ARM. SEAS 7
FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-051400-
KACHEMAK BAY
830 PM ADT MON JUN 4 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.

.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 051241 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT TUE JUN 5 2007

CORRECTED ZONES 130 AND 132 HEADLINES

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-060200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 998 MB LOW NEAR CAPE SITKINAK WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF BEHIND THE
LOW TODAY AND REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH THURSDAY. A 994
MB LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES TO 250 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY
BY WED MORNING AND OVER KODIAK ISLAND WED NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING
OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA THU.

$$

PKZ120-060200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT TUE JUN 5 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-060200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT TUE JUN 5 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-060200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT TUE JUN 5 2007

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-060200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT TUE JUN 5 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-060200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT TUE JUN 5 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-060200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT TUE JUN 5 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-060200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT TUE JUN 5 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-060200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT TUE JUN 5 2007

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-060200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT TUE JUN 5 2007

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
600 AM ADT MON JUN 4 2007

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE MAIN FEATURES ON IR IMAGERY THIS MORNING ARE
THE LARGE LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALAKSA WITH BROAD FRONTAL BAND/PRECIP
SHIELD MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE GULF COAST...ANOTHER SURFACE LOW LOCATED JUST
SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...AND FINALLY AN NORTH/SOUTH ELONGATED LOW
SITUATED UNDERNEATH A LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING. A STRONG 250MB JET
IS ALSO VISIBLE STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC AT AROUND 40N.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ALL SEEM TO HAVE THE BASIC GIST THROUGH THE FIRST 36
TO 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT POINT THE NAM ONCE AGAIN DIVERGES FROM THE GFS/UKMET.
WHEREAS THE GFS AND UKMET DEVELOP A DEEPER LOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE JET THAT
ROTATES UP INTO THE WESTERN GULF...THE NAM DOES NOT DEVELOP THE LOW MUCH AND
INSTEAD SHUNTS IT RAPIDLY OFF TO THE EAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS
HAS BEEN BEEN GOING WITH THIS STRONGER LOW FOR A COUPLE OF RUNS NOW...SO THE
FORECAST WILL BE GOING WITH THAT SOLUTION. MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF IN THE EXTENDED IS ALSO ACCEPTABLE WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING A BROAD
UPPER LOW OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE GULF WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN
BERING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...LARGE FRONT MAKES MOVES ASHORE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY
WITH RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE COASTAL ZONES AND THE WESTERN KENAI THIS MORNING.
THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND MATANUSKA VALLEY WILL BE IN AN AREA OF DOWNSLOPING AND
WILL PROBABLY SEE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM. WINDS THROUGH PORTAGE
VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN ARM  SHOULD BE PICKING LATER THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND WILL CONTINUE AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN ALONG THE GULF COAST BEHIND
THE FRONT. EXPECT STRONGEST WINDS DURING INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WITH
POST-FRONTAL ISALLOBARIC PUSH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...HOWEVER
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT UNTIL THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. THE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT
MOVE INLAND SHOULD ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT CONVECTION FROM BECOMING
DEEP ENOUGH FOR THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN SPREADS INTO THE BRISTOL BAY REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES RAPIDLY OUT AHEAD
OF THE PARENT LOW AND ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING. ONLY GOING
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE KUSOKWIM VALLEY ZONES TONIGHT THOUGH AS MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO HAVE PRECIPITATED OUT.

RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WILL BRING A BRIEF RESPITE FOR MOST OF
SOUTHCENTRAL WITH SUNNIER SKIES TUE INTO WED...THOUGH SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG
THE EASTERN KENAI AND KODIAK ISLAND IN THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES IN THE WESTERN GULF WED NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER BOUT OF GALES TO
THE WESTERN GULF AND KODIAK ISLAND AND PRECIP TO THE COASTAL AREAS ONCE AGAIN
AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY INLAND AMD ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY ON THU.

IN THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE LOW IN THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN. THIS LOW MERGES WITH THE SYSTEM THAT IS DROPPING DOWN ACROSS
THE WESTERN BERING...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
BERING THROUGH WED. RIDGING BUILDS ACRSS THE WESTERN BERING ON WED AS THE
CONSOLIDATED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE GENERAL PATTERN BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK IS FOR
A BROAD UPPER LOW ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE GULF WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS. COASTAL AREAS OF THE GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN A WET PATTERN BUT INLAND ZONES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL SHOULD SEE
WARMER DRIER WEATHER BY THE WEEKEND AS THE FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 130.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

WOOD JUN 07