Gale Warning 444, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 262347
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT THU APR 26 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-271400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 974 MB LOW 325 NM SOUTH OF CORDOVA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
AND WEAKEN TO 988 MB FRI AFTERNOON. IT WILL THEN MOVE TO 125 NM 
SOUTH OF YAKUTAT AND WEAKEN TO 1000 MB AT AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-271400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT THU APR 26 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-271400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT THU APR 26 2007

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-271400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT THU APR 26 2007

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-271400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT THU APR 26 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 15 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-271400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT THU APR 26 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...EAST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT
AROUND MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. BARREN ISLANDS WEST...VARIABLE WIND 15
KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...EAST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
BARREN ISLANDS WEST...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-271400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT THU APR 26 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-271400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT THU APR 26 2007

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-271400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT THU APR 26 2007

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-271400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT THU APR 26 2007

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2
FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM ADT WED APR 25 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FROM THE OVERNIGHT RUNS.
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH THE APPROACHING LOW.
THE NAM MOVES THE LOW FURTHER NORTHEAST TOMORROW THAN DOES THE GFS
BEFORE BRINGING IT BACK TO THE GFS POSITION THURSDAY NIGHT. THE UKMET
MODEL MAY HAVE THE BEST POSITIONING WITH THE LOW BETWEEN THE NAM AND
GFS SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER THE UKMET PRESSURE APPEARS A LITTLE WEAK.
WHILE THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IT WILL NOT MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE IN
THE FORECAST AS THIS IS ALL OCCURRING WELL OFFSHORE IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THERE IS ALSO A DIFFERENCE IN THE LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIAN AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WHILE THE FOUR MODELS ALL
HAVE THE LOW WEST OF ATTU THEY HAVE FOUR DIFFERENT POSITIONS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT. PREFER THE GFS OUT WEST AT THIS TIME FOR THIS LOW.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. NOT UNTIL ONE GETS TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS DOES IT
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA BEHIND THE LOW
MOVING INTO THE GULF. HOWEVER THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
CONSTRAINED TO THE BERING SEA AREA WHILE THE MAINLAND ALASKA REMAINS
UNDER VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND.
IR SATELLITE SHOWS THE LOW APPROACHING THE GULF CURRENTLY NEAR 51N
150W. THE STRONG FRONTAL STRUCTURE IS CLEAR IN THE SATELLITE PICTURE
AS IS THE JET STREAM WHICH IS BEGINNING TO SHOOT EAST OF THE LOW AND
HENCE WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO STOP IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND THEN SLOWLY
WEAKEN.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...SOUTHEAST FLOW IS BRINGING SHOWERS ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND INTO TURNAGAIN ARM. SHOWERS ALSO ARE IN THE NORMAL
UPSLOPE REGION OF WESTERN COOK INLET AND HAVE SPILLED OVER INTO THE
BRISTOL BAY AREA. RAIN IS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
FOR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WHICH WERE EXPERIENCING SNOW SHOWERS EARLIER
TODAY. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AND THEN BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AS RIDGING PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER US THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL
KEEP THE JET STREAM SOUTH OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW
RELATIVELY WEAK. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL POP UP IN INTERIOR REGIONS
WITH RAIN ALONG COASTAL AREAS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 172 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

EZ APR 07