Gale Warning 443, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 262310
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT THU APR 26 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-271400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 978 MB 450 NM WEST OF SHEMYA THU NIGHT WILL MOVE TO 140 NM NORTH OF
ADAK AT 986 MB SAT AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-271400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM ADT THU APR 26 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-271400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM ADT THU APR 26 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-271400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM ADT THU APR 26 2007

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-271400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM ADT THU APR 26 2007

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-271400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM ADT THU APR 26 2007

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.

.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2
FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-271400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM ADT THU APR 26 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN
THE EVENING. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-271400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM ADT THU APR 26 2007

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE WIND 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-271400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM ADT THU APR 26 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE WIND 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW WIND 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-271400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM ADT THU APR 26 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-271400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM ADT THU APR 26 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. LOCAL GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN WITH
SNOW. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-271400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM ADT THU APR 26 2007

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-271400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM ADT THU APR 26 2007

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6  FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM ADT WED APR 25 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FROM THE OVERNIGHT RUNS.
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH THE APPROACHING LOW.
THE NAM MOVES THE LOW FURTHER NORTHEAST TOMORROW THAN DOES THE GFS
BEFORE BRINGING IT BACK TO THE GFS POSITION THURSDAY NIGHT. THE UKMET
MODEL MAY HAVE THE BEST POSITIONING WITH THE LOW BETWEEN THE NAM AND
GFS SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER THE UKMET PRESSURE APPEARS A LITTLE WEAK.
WHILE THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IT WILL NOT MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE IN
THE FORECAST AS THIS IS ALL OCCURRING WELL OFFSHORE IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THERE IS ALSO A DIFFERENCE IN THE LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIAN AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WHILE THE FOUR MODELS ALL
HAVE THE LOW WEST OF ATTU THEY HAVE FOUR DIFFERENT POSITIONS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT. PREFER THE GFS OUT WEST AT THIS TIME FOR THIS LOW.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. NOT UNTIL ONE GETS TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS DOES IT
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA BEHIND THE LOW
MOVING INTO THE GULF. HOWEVER THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
CONSTRAINED TO THE BERING SEA AREA WHILE THE MAINLAND ALASKA REMAINS
UNDER VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND.
IR SATELLITE SHOWS THE LOW APPROACHING THE GULF CURRENTLY NEAR 51N
150W. THE STRONG FRONTAL STRUCTURE IS CLEAR IN THE SATELLITE PICTURE
AS IS THE JET STREAM WHICH IS BEGINNING TO SHOOT EAST OF THE LOW AND
HENCE WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO STOP IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND THEN SLOWLY
WEAKEN.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...SOUTHEAST FLOW IS BRINGING SHOWERS ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND INTO TURNAGAIN ARM. SHOWERS ALSO ARE IN THE NORMAL
UPSLOPE REGION OF WESTERN COOK INLET AND HAVE SPILLED OVER INTO THE
BRISTOL BAY AREA. RAIN IS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
FOR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WHICH WERE EXPERIENCING SNOW SHOWERS EARLIER
TODAY. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AND THEN BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AS RIDGING PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER US THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL
KEEP THE JET STREAM SOUTH OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW
RELATIVELY WEAK. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL POP UP IN INTERIOR REGIONS
WITH RAIN ALONG COASTAL AREAS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 172 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

EZ APR 07