Gale Warning 203, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 141246
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST WED FEB 14 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-150300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 991 MB LOW 450 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT WILL MOVE TO SITKA THIS
AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A 975 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH
HARBOR WILL MOVE TO 150 NM SOUTH OF CHIGNIK AND WEAKEN TO 991 MB BY
THU AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL DISSIPATE THU NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ120-150300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST WED FEB 14 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-150300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST WED FEB 14 2007

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-150300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST WED FEB 14 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY NOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-150300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST WED FEB 14 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY NOON. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-150300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST WED FEB 14 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-150300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST WED FEB 14 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS  7 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-150300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST WED FEB 14 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-150300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST WED FEB 14 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-150300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST WED FEB 14 2007

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST TUE FEB 13 2007

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...WEAKENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL
CONTINUE TO FILL AND DRIFT NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST
OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL WITH THE WEAK UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT IN WEST. WEAKENING NORTHWEST SOUTHEAST ORIENTED
FRONTAL BAND ACROSS BERING SEA FROM LOW IN WESTERN BERING SEA TO LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA. TROUGHING EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING AS SNOW OVER
THE INLAND KENAI PENINSULA. SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING AS THE FLOW BACKS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. DRIER AIR
MOVING IN WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...OTHERWISE PATTERN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
GIVEN THE TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH A MINIMUM OF MARINE WARNINGS OUT.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
BROAD TROUGHINESS THAT DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE WESTERN
BERING SEA GIVES WAY TO AMPLIFIED FLOW. THE LONG WAVE RIDGE APPEARS
TO WANT TO REESTABLISH OVER 160W SOMETIME NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA.

MODELS....NCEP MODELS LOOKING WELL INITIALIZED AND FAIRLY CONSISTENT
THROUGH 72 HOURS. WRF THEN HAS TYPICAL BOUNDARY ISSUES WITH SYSTEM
MOVING OUT OF EXTREME WESTERN BERING SEA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 155 170.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

CAS FEB 07