Gale Warning 1009, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 221547 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AMENDMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST SAT DEC 22 2007

AMENDED 120 125

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-230300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+COOK INLET...
A 960 MB LOW 500 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY TONIGHT MOVES INLAND
NEAR PETERSBURG AT 982 MB SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER 
THE WESTERN GULF SUNDAY...THEN A FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF MONDAY
WITH A 976 MB LOW MOVING TO 180 NM SOUTH OF CHIGNIK.

$$

PKZ120-230300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
640 AM AST SAT DEC 22 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT SHIFTING TO W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. 
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-230300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST SAT DEC 22 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-230300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
640 AM AST SAT DEC 22 2007

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS TO 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-230300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST SAT DEC 22 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-230300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST SAT DEC 22 2007

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W OF BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 25 KT
BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. E OF
BARREN ISLANDS...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.  
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT SHIFTING TO W 20 KT TOWARD MORNING. 
SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY TOWARD MORNING.
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-230300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST SAT DEC 22 2007

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO W 30 KT TOWARD MORNING. 
SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST TOWARD MORNING. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-230300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST SAT DEC 22 2007

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 25 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 35 KT 
OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-230300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST SAT DEC 22 2007

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT BY
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. N OF KALGIN
ISLAND...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...S OF KALGIN ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO W 35 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF KALGIN ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT
INCREASING TO SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 
3 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-230300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST SAT DEC 22 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SUNDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
555 AM AST FRI DEC 21 2007

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
TWO LOWS IN OUR FORECAST DOMAIN IN THE LOWER 970S PROVIDING PLENTY OF
CHALLENGES TO THE FORECAST. MAIN COLD CORE UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHWESTERN ALASKA IS SHIFTING ITS ENERGY SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE
EASTERN BERING SEA WHERE IT WILL BE ABSORBED BY A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THE NEW LOW WILL SETTLE
NEAR THE NORTON SOUND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL INSURE COLD AIR
REMAINS OVER OUR DOMAIN AS SURFACE LOWS ARE SENT EAST INTO JUNEAUS
FORECAST AREA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THE FORECAST AS GFS AND UKMET IN AGREEMENT
AND SHOW SOME RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. NAM NOT INITIALIZING WELL WITH
THE LOCATION OF GULF LOW. STUCK WITH THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS. WITH
LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...HAD TO MAKE SOME
UPDATES IN THE MID AND LONG RANGE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS LATEST
RUN.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
IMMEDIATE CONCERN THIS MORNING IS CHANCE OF SNOW TODAY AGAIN IN
ANCHORAGE. THE LOW IS TRACKING A BIT FURTHER WEST AND BELIEVE THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW IN ANCHORAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
KENAI RADAR ECHOES SHOWING SOME SNOW...BUT NOTHING MAKING IT TO THE
GROUND YET. THERE IS NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION AS THE TROUGH AXIS
ROTATES THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT WHEN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY THIS COLD...BELIEVE IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
DYNAMICS TO SQUEEZE SNOW OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AS EVIDENCED BY THE
SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THINKING SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY INLAND AND DISSIPATES. FOG WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO MANY AREAS TONIGHT WITH FRESH SNOWFALL AND LIGHT
WINDS.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...
NORTH-SOUTH AXIS OF SNOW FALLING WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE FROM KING
SALMON NORTH TO MCGRATH. BELIEVE THIS IS A RESULT OF A TROWAL ON THE
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE MATURE LOW. THIS FEATURE...BEST SEEN
UTILIZING 700 MB EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE...HAS MOVED VERY
LITTLE OVERNIGHT SO HAVE SEEN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IN
THIS REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH
AND THE TROWAL SLOWLY DISSIPATES.

KUSKOKWIM DELTA SEEING ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILLS AS ARCTIC AIR MASS
IS BEING DRAWN SOUTH AND WEST TOWARD THE COAST. A FEW STATIONS
INCLUDING BETHEL ASOS HAVE WIND CHILL READINGS CURRENTLY 35 TO 40
BELOW ZERO. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE TODAY...SOME WARMER
AIR ALOFT WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE. WARMER AIR IS A
RELATIVE TERM AS TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS.

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW ENTERS BRISTOL BAY LATE TONIGHT SENDING SNOW
NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
AS IT DRIFTS NORTH TOWARD NORTON SOUND EARLY IN THE WEEK. ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AND PLENTY OF
SNOW SHOWERS.

BERING SEA WILL REMAIN COLD AND WINDY WITH NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 195
MARINE...STORM WARNING ZONE 120.
         GALE WARNING ZONES 125 130 155 172 175 179 180.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING ZONES 130 140 160 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB DEC 07