Gale Warning 1006, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 211328 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST FRI DEC 21 2007

CORRECTED 140

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-220300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 974 MB 140 NM SOUTH OF CORDOVA WILL MOVE NORTH RAPIDLY TODAY 
INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THEN INLAND AT 987 MB THIS EVENING.
$$

PKZ120-220300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST FRI DEC 21 2007

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E OF CAPE CLEARE...NE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. W OF CAPE
CLEARE...NE WIND 45 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. 
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-220300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST FRI DEC 21 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-220300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST FRI DEC 21 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT BY LATE MORNING THEN DIMINISHING
TO NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN
THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-220300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST FRI DEC 21 2007

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT SHIFTING TO W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-220300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST FRI DEC 21 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W OF BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE MORNING. E OF BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING 
NW BY LATE MORNING THEN DIMINISHING TO SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-220300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST FRI DEC 21 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 12 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-220300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST FRI DEC 21 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT OR LESS BY LATE
MORNING. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-220300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST FRI DEC 21 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-220300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST FRI DEC 21 2007

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 220008
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST FRI DEC 21 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-221500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 979 MB LOW 55 NM SOUTH OF CORDOVA WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHWEST 
TODAY INTO THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THEN INLAND AT 986 MB THIS
EVENING. 

$$

PKZ120-221500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST FRI DEC 21 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-221500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST FRI DEC 21 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-221500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST FRI DEC 21 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-221500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST FRI DEC 21 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT. SNOW. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-221500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST FRI DEC 21 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-221500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST FRI DEC 21 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-221500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST FRI DEC 21 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-221500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST FRI DEC 21 2007

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT BY MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-221500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST FRI DEC 21 2007

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST THU DEC 20 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS MODEL OVERALL PREFERRED IN SHORT AND MEDIUM
RANGE. FEW CHANGES LIKELY IN FORECAST PACKAGES IN THE LONG RANGE. 12Z
GFS/EC RUNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT RANGE. THESE MODELS
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON DEVELOPING NPAC LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA TONIGHT. NAM FORECAST POSITION IS TOO FAR EAST OF EXPECTED
FORECAST TRACK.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
.EAST...OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WITH SLOW MOVING FRONTAL TROUGH
APPROACHING COOK INLET WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS TO
SOUTHERN ZONE 121 AND ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF COOK INLET AND SUSITNA
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT (UPGLIDE)
WILL BE THE MAJOR CONTRIBUTOR IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS. EXPECT SNOW TO TAPER OFF OVER THESE AREAS FRI AS EASTERLY
FLOW SETS UP IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS. THE EASTERN KENAI PEN WILL
GET SIGNIFICANT SNOW ALSO...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW WARNING
THRESHOLDS...LITTLE SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT/FRI. DEVELOPING LOW CENTER MOVES INTO THE
GULF IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT WITH A PRESSURE IN THE
970S. EXPECT CENTER TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
FRI AND INLAND LATE FRI NIGHT. EXPECT GALES/STORMS AHEAD OF THIS
CENTER.  STRONG WIND HEADLINES LIKELY FOR ZONE 135 LATE TONIGHT AND
FRI WITH APPROACH OF LOW. TEMPERATURES LIKE THEY WILL WARM UP ENOUGH
WHERE PROLONGED BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A PROBLEM. ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW
FOR SOUTHCENTRAL/GULF LIKELY ON SAT AS A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW CENTER IN BRISTOL BAY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

.WEST...960S LOW OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND REMNANTS OF
FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS OVER THE PRIBILOFS THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE WITH DIMINISHING WINDS FRI AS LOW CENTER WEAKENS AND SHIFTS
SOUTH. 960S LOW CENTER WEAKENS AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF UNALASKA FRI
MORNING. CENTER THEN MOVES TO OVER BRISTOL BAY IN THE 970S SAT.
CENTER WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INLAND SAT NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS WILL SETTLE
DOWN OVER MUCH OF THE BERING SEA AND SW AK AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS
LOW...WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WINDS SUN AND MON. NEXT BIG STORM MOVES
SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TUE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING ZONE 195. HEAVY SNOW WARNING ZONE 121.
MARINE...STORM...120. GALES 130 150 155 160 165 170 172 176 179 AND
180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC DEC 07