Freezing Rain Advisory 2, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM AST THU FEB 8 2007

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH LOWER
PRESSURE IN THE BERING WILL HOLD TRUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE WEATHER PATTERN AFTER THE
WEEKEND...WITH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY VERY POOR. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE
TO THE FORECAST DUE TO THESE EVOLUTIONARY ISSUES.

EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...SNOW CURRENTLY FALLING ALONG THE
SOUTHCENTRAL COAST WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY TODAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY. ONCE THIS FEATURE BY-PASSES US TO THE
EAST...RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE GULF PROMOTING
SUBSIDENCE AT ALL LEVELS. THE OVERALL FLOW WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK
WITH NO DISCERNABLE FEATURES AT THE SFC OR ALOFT...WHICH SPELLS
MAINLY DRY WX.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...A LOW CURRENTLY NEAR SHEMYA WILL MOVE
NORTH WHILE SPREADING A FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND
BERING SEA. ALL THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAIN SO FAR WEST THAT
THE FRONT WILL FIZZLE OUT BEFORE EVEN THINKING OF REACHING
THE SOUTHWEST COAST. THE NEXT POTENTIAL PLAYER DEVELOPS AND MOVES
NORTH ALONG THE 170W LONGITUDE LINE. THE NAM AND GFS DISAGREE ON
WHERE TO TAKE THIS LOW. IT ALL DEPENDS ON THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH
OVER THE GULF AND MORE IMPORTANTLY ITS ORIENTATION. THE GFS WANTS TO
KEEP THE RIDGE ORIENTED MORE NORTH SOUTH ALLOWING THE LOW TO TRACK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ON SAT...WHILE THE NAM ORIENTS THE RIDGE
AT A BIT MORE OF AN ANGLE PUSHING THE LOW FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST.
BASED UPON THE TRACK OF THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS OUT THAT WAY...A TRACK
JUST WEST OF NORTH (A COMPROMISE) SEEMS LIKE THE WAY TO GO FOR NOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY.
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 172 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JCA