Brisk Wind Advisory 4, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 150029 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST SUN JAN 14 2007

CORRECTED AREA 185

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-151500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 983 MB LOW 600 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 200 NM WEST 
OF ADAK BY TUE AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS MON NIGHT AND THEN ACROSS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND BRISTOL BAY TUE.
$$

PKZ150-151500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AST SUN JAN 14 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO SE 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-151500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AST SUN JAN 14 2007

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-151500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AST SUN JAN 14 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. PATCHY FOG.

.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. PATCHY FOG. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

PKZ165-151500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AST SUN JAN 14 2007

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-151500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AST SUN JAN 14 2007

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT.

$$

PKZ170-151500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AST SUN JAN 14 2007

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE WIND 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
BUILDING TO 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-151500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AST SUN JAN 14 2007

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 
45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-151500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AST SUN JAN 14 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
21 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ175-151500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AST SUN JAN 14 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED AND THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-151500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AST SUN JAN 14 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-151500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AST SUN JAN 14 2007

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. PATCHY
FOG. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 

$$

PKZ179-151500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AST SUN JAN 14 2007

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE WIND 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 17 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 151252
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST MON JAN 15 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-160300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A LARGE 980 MB LOW 500 NM SOUTH OF ADAK WILL BECOME A 974 MB LOW 75
NM NORTH OF ATKA TUE NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA MON EVENING AND WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA TUE NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ150-160300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AST MON JAN 15 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-160300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AST MON JAN 15 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONGEST
WEST OF SANAK ISLAND. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-160300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AST MON JAN 15 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 11 FT. RAIN.  
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-160300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AST MON JAN 15 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE WIND 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED AND THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-160300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AST MON JAN 15 2007

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. 
.WED AND THU...SE WIND 30 KT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. 

$$

PKZ170-160300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AST MON JAN 15 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-160300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AST MON JAN 15 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 45
KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-160300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AST MON JAN 15 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING S WIND 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON ON THE
PACIFIC SIDE. SEAS BUILDING TO 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-160300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AST MON JAN 15 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS WITH SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-160300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AST MON JAN 15 2007

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-160300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AST MON JAN 15 2007

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15
FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-160300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AST MON JAN 15 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1252 PM AST SUN JAN 14 2007

.DISCUSSION...

ANALYSIS...IN THE UPPER LEVELS THERE IS A LARGE HEMISPHERIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER EASTERN RUSSIA AND THE FAR WESTERN BERING
SEA...A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA...UPPER LOW
CENTER SOUTH OF THE AKPENN NEAR 50N 160W WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TO ANOTHER LOW CENTER OVER
WEST-CENTRAL ALASKA...AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE RIDGE FROM THE
EAST PACIFIC NORTHWARD INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
THE JET CORE EXTENDS OUT OF ASIA BETWEEN 30N AND 35N LATITUDE AND
SPLITS AROUND 40N 175W. A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
TRIPLE POINT ARE TRACKING TOWARD THIS AREA OF DIVERGENCE AND TRIPLE
POINT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...THE BERING
SEA/ALEUTIANS/SOUTHWEST ALASKA ARE VERY CALM TODAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF
FOG. SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA IS FEELING THE BRUNT OF A MODERATE LOW
WHICH IS CURRENTLY TRACKING JUST WEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WHERE PRECIPITATION IS
FALLING AS RAIN ALL OTHER AREAS ARE RECEIVING SNOW. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING OVER SOUTHERN COOK INLET WITH
VERY SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEASTWARD. MEANWHILE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
IS SPREADING MOISTURE OVER THE KENAI AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS TO
ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT-SU. THIS HAS SET UP A DEFORMATION ZONE FROM
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TO THE SUSITNA VALLEY. SNOWFALL HAS
GENERALLY BEEN LIGHT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH
OCCASIONAL INCREASES IN INTENSITY. SNOWFALL OVER WESTERN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND HAS BEEN HEAVY AT TIMES WITH UP TO 1 FOOT ACCUMULATION
IN SOME AREAS ALREADY. SNOW HAS ALSO BEEN FALLING STEADILY FROM
NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. LOCALIZED
WINDS ARE CAUSING BLOWING SNOW IN WHITTIER WHERE A BLIZZARD WARNING
IS IN EFFECT AND THOMPSON PASS WHERE A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT.

MODEL ANALYSIS...MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING TROUBLE WITH THE GULF LOW.
THE UKMET/GFS ARE CLOSEST TO REALITY AND WILL BE USED FOR THIS
FEATURE. ELSEWHERE...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND SHOW FAIR
CONSISTENCY IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO USE GFS WITH NEXT
MAJOR LOW OUT WEST...ALTHOUGH DO NOT THINK GFS OR OTHER MODELS ARE
PICKING UP ON LIKELY TRIPLE POINT DEVELOPMENT.

SOUTHCENTRAL FORECAST...DETERMINING THE END OF SNOWFALL FOR ANCHORAGE
AND THE MAT-SU IS A BIT TRICKY. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER SOUTHERN
COOK INLET LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
OVER WESTERN ALASKA WILL APPROACH LATER TONIGHT WHILE THE UPPER LOW
SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL. SO...THIS SECOND
SHORT-WAVE MAY HELP PROLONG THE SNOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING
HOURS. IN ANY CASE...SNOW WILL REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT AND LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING FOR WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AS THE LOW MOVE SINLAND LATER THIS EVENING. THE BLIZZARD
WARNING FOR WHITTIER IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON...THIS
MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED BEWCAUSE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE LOW MOVES
INTO THE SOUND AND COLD AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. SO
EVEN IF THE SNOW DIMINISHES OR ENDS THE WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...WILL EXTEND THE BLIZZARD
WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH A LOW TRACK ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN LOOK FOR SNOW TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL EXPECT A RESIDUAL LOW TO FORM IN VICINITY OF PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND TONIGHT...MODELS DEPICT THIS OCCURRING NEAR CORDOVA.
THE SECOND TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL MONDAY PUSHING
THE RESIDUAL SURFACE LOW EASTWARD AND CLEARING OUT MOST OF THE
REGION. AS PER THE NORM GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
SHORT-TERM FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN GULF THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS
DUE TO COLD ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES. THERE WILL ONLY BE A BRIEF
BREAK AS A FRONT MOVES TO KODIAK ISLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
SOUTHCENTRAL TUESDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE FAST MOVING AND
PRODUCE ONLY A QUICK SHOT OF PRECIP.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS/AKPENN/SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST...DEVELOPING
LOW OUT WEST WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS LATE MONDAY AS
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES NORTH AND EAST ACROSS ALEUTIANS. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPMENT DUE TO
FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE. ASSUMING A MAJOR TRIPLE POINT DOES NOT
DEVELOP OCCLUDED FRONT WILL STRETCH OUT AS IT MOVES NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE EASTERN BERING AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA DUE TO PARENT LOW
REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY BACK OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. EXPECT
MAX GALES ALONG THE FRONT INITIALLY THEN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
PROGRESSES NORTH AND EAST. THERE IS ENOUGH WARM AIR BEING FORCED
NORTHWARD THAT MAIN PRECIP TYPE ALONG THE ALEUTIANS/AKPENN WILL BE
RAIN. HOWEVER AS FRONT OCCLUDES AND REACHES SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND
PRIBILOFS PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE SNOW. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE NEED TO
WORRY ABOUT BLOWING SNOW OR BLIZZARD AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL
REEVALUATE THIS AT A LATER TIME FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE PRIBS.
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK UPPER LOW CIRCULATION SETS UP VICINITY
OF WESTERN ALEUTIANS SO STORM TRACK WILL BRING LOWS NORTHWARD INTO
THE EASTERN BERING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING ZONE 125 FOR WHITTIER.
MARINE...GALES 130 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 175 176 179 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...121 129 130.

SEB JAN 07