Blowing Snow Advisory 7, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST SUN JAN 14 2007

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT. GFS PREFERRED MODEL.

STILL SOME DIFFICULTIES RESOLVING 996 MB SURFACE LOW IN NORTHERN
GULF. ALL MODELS PREFER TO KEEP THE SURFACE CENTER NEAR CORDOVA...OR
EASTWARD. HOWEVER...SAT IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS INCREASINGLY
SUGGESTING LOW WILL HEAD DIRECTLY INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. DECENT
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS AS WELL DUE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHWARD. DEFINITELY A GOOD SNOW PATTERN FOR THE SOUND AND
COPPER RIVER BASIN...POSSIBLY WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND TURNAGAIN
ARM AS WELL.

995 MB CENTER NEAR 50N 163W WILL TRACK DUE EASTWARD ALONG 50N AND
DISSIPATE SOUTH OF THE GULF MON EVENING. GUSTY NE TO NW WINDS TODAY
FROM ILIAMNA TO DUTCH HARBOR BUT LITTLE OR NO PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

THICK STRATOCUMULUS DECK IS VISIBLE ON SAT EXTENDING ACROSS KUSKOKWIM
DELTA AND WESTERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND IS LIKELY TO PERSIST. EXPECT
CONTINUED PERIODS OF SNOW AS SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES ALOFT PROVIDE
ENHANCEMENT.

RELATIVELY QUIET TODAY OUT WEST...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREDOMINATES
OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. OLD 993 MB LOW 270 NM WEST OF SHEMYA IS
PROGGED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTHERN KAMCHATKA PENINSULA BY MON
AFTERNOON.

BUT NEXT MAJOR STORM IS ALREADY ON THE HORIZON...A 987 MB LOW
CURRENTLY NEAR 43N 173E WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN TO 969 MB AND MOVE INTO
WESTERN ALEUTIANS NEAR ADAK MON NIGHT. EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AT THIS TIME PERIOD. THE LOW THEN HOVERS JUST NORTHWEST OF ADAK
THROUGH 120 HOURS AND SLOWLY WEAKENS. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL REACH
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY MORNING. CONTINUING ITS
NORTHEASTWARD PATH...THE FRONT WILL REACH THE PRIBILOFS AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS MON EVENING AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND WEST COAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING SUSTAINED GALE FORCE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
AND HEAVY PRECIP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
PRECIP FALLING MAINLY AS RAIN ALONG THE FRONT BUT CHANGING TO MIXED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS POST FROPA AS WINDS SHIFT TO FIRST SOUTHWEST
THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND SYSTEM.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 155 170 171 172 175 176 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB JAN 07