Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
326 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2007

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ABBREVIATED DISCUSSIONS THIS MORNING AS SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOPED
THIS MORNING AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE ARE
INTERFERING WITH NORMAL DUTIES.

SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WITH PROBABLE LARGE HAIL HAVE DEVELOPED JUST
EAST OF MOBRIDGE VERY EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL ASSIST IN
MAINTAINING STORMS AND DEVELOPING NEW STORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
THIS MORNING...IN ADDITION TO RICH MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10AM CDT/9AM MDT THIS
MORNING FOR NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

SPC HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE DAY ONE PERIOD AND MORE EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
SEVERE...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS
STATIONARY OR MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. THE NAM HAS BEEN TRENDING
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...AND KEEPS
CHANCES OF RAIN GOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO FRIDAY. WITH
CURRENT TRENDS AND AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF/CANADIAN...AS WELL AS
MORE GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT SITUATION...THE SLOWER
TREND HAS BEEN PRETTY MUCH ACCEPTED AND POPS HAVE BEEN HUNG BACK
THROUGH PART OF FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AS SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE AND CORE OF
HOTTEST AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 20 TO 24 C BY
SATURDAY AND 23 TO 28 C BY SUNDAY AS THIS RIDGE MOVES EAST. AS
THIS OCCURS...A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND AN
INDUCED SURFACE LOW FORMS IN THE EASTERN ROCKIES/WESTERN PLAINS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE LOW. WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES OF
12 TO 16 C THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...ANY CHANCE OF
CONVECTION SEEMS QUITE LIMITED AS THE REGION WILL BE PRETTY CAPPED
AND WARM ALOFT. LEFT POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS MOSTLY
FOR THE SAKE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION FOR NOW...BUT MAY HAVE TO BE
REMOVED AT A LATER DATE. THIS GENERAL PATTERN WITH THE SURFACE LOW
IN THE EASTERN ROCKIES/WESTERN PLAINS HOLDS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&
.AVIATION...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA HAS LED TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LOWER LOCAL
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR IFR IN HEAVY RAIN. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR WITH UNLIMITED VISIBILITIES AND SCATTERED CLOUDS
AT OR ABOVE 5000 FEET. THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...MORE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.

&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ECKSTEIN
LONG TERM...KEEFE/ECKSTEIN
AVIATION...KEEFE/ECKSTEIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
518 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2007

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-211030-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
518 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2007 /418 AM MDT WED JUN 20 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS ALSO
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CHANCES EXIST FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
AGAIN ON THURSDAY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AFTER
3PM.

ECKSTEIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
317 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 AM     HAIL             EUREKA                  45.77N 99.62W
06/21/2007  E0.88 INCH       MCPHERSON          SD   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0235 AM     HAIL             2 NW BOWDLE             45.47N 99.69W
06/21/2007  E0.75 INCH       EDMUNDS            SD   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

TMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
324 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0318 AM     HAIL             4 N BOWDLE              45.51N 99.66W
06/21/2007  E1.00 INCH       EDMUNDS            SD   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0321 AM     HAIL             LONG LAKE               45.86N 99.21W
06/21/2007  E1.75 INCH       MCPHERSON          SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TMK