Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS Aberdeen, SD

000 
WGUS73 KABR 211438
FFSABR

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
938 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2007

SDC107-119-211448-
POTTER SD-SULLY SD-
938 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SULLY AND POTTER
COUNTIES...

AT 937 AM CDT...RECENT RADAR DATA...AS WELL AS INFORMATION RELAYED TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATE THAT THE THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT
THURSDAY MORNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4518 10023 4460 10053 4459 9978 4516 9960

$$
DORN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
326 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2007

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ABBREVIATED DISCUSSIONS THIS MORNING AS SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOPED
THIS MORNING AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE ARE
INTERFERING WITH NORMAL DUTIES.

SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WITH PROBABLE LARGE HAIL HAVE DEVELOPED JUST
EAST OF MOBRIDGE VERY EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL ASSIST IN
MAINTAINING STORMS AND DEVELOPING NEW STORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
THIS MORNING...IN ADDITION TO RICH MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10AM CDT/9AM MDT THIS
MORNING FOR NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

SPC HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE DAY ONE PERIOD AND MORE EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
SEVERE...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS
STATIONARY OR MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. THE NAM HAS BEEN TRENDING
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...AND KEEPS
CHANCES OF RAIN GOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO FRIDAY. WITH
CURRENT TRENDS AND AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF/CANADIAN...AS WELL AS
MORE GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT SITUATION...THE SLOWER
TREND HAS BEEN PRETTY MUCH ACCEPTED AND POPS HAVE BEEN HUNG BACK
THROUGH PART OF FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AS SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE AND CORE OF
HOTTEST AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 20 TO 24 C BY
SATURDAY AND 23 TO 28 C BY SUNDAY AS THIS RIDGE MOVES EAST. AS
THIS OCCURS...A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND AN
INDUCED SURFACE LOW FORMS IN THE EASTERN ROCKIES/WESTERN PLAINS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE LOW. WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES OF
12 TO 16 C THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...ANY CHANCE OF
CONVECTION SEEMS QUITE LIMITED AS THE REGION WILL BE PRETTY CAPPED
AND WARM ALOFT. LEFT POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS MOSTLY
FOR THE SAKE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION FOR NOW...BUT MAY HAVE TO BE
REMOVED AT A LATER DATE. THIS GENERAL PATTERN WITH THE SURFACE LOW
IN THE EASTERN ROCKIES/WESTERN PLAINS HOLDS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&
.AVIATION...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA HAS LED TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LOWER LOCAL
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR IFR IN HEAVY RAIN. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR WITH UNLIMITED VISIBILITIES AND SCATTERED CLOUDS
AT OR ABOVE 5000 FEET. THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...MORE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.

&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ECKSTEIN
LONG TERM...KEEFE/ECKSTEIN
AVIATION...KEEFE/ECKSTEIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
513 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2007

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-221015-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
513 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2007 /413 AM MDT THU JUN 21 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN
MINNESOTA TODAY...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS THE AREA
SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHWARD AND AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES
EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY BECOME
SEVERE...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...LARGE HAIL...AND STRONG WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE ARE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY TODAY ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND
WESTERN MINNESOTA.

NJE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
324 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0318 AM     HAIL             4 N BOWDLE              45.51N 99.66W
06/21/2007  E1.00 INCH       EDMUNDS            SD   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0321 AM     HAIL             LONG LAKE               45.86N 99.21W
06/21/2007  E1.75 INCH       MCPHERSON          SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
332 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0327 AM     HAIL             1 N BOWDLE              45.47N 99.66W
06/21/2007  E1.25 INCH       EDMUNDS            SD   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

TMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
341 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0328 AM     HAIL             2 N BOWDLE              45.48N 99.66W
06/21/2007  E2.50 INCH       EDMUNDS            SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
641 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 AM     HAIL             TIMBER LAKE             45.43N 101.07W
06/21/2007  E1.00 INCH       DEWEY              SD   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

NJE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
732 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     HAIL             GETTYSBURG              45.01N 99.95W
06/21/2007  E0.75 INCH       POTTER             SD   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

NJE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
751 AM CDT THU JUN 21 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0742 AM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 SE SUTTON BAY REC ARE 44.85N 100.31W
06/21/2007                   SULLY              SD   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

SD