Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
128 PM MDT SUN JUN 3 2007

.DISCUSSION...STORMS A POPPIN AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS TIME
THE WEST CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS REGIONS ARE
SEEING A LITTLE MORE ACTIVITY. ALREADY HEAVE RECVD A REPORT OR TWO
OF SEVERE WEATHER IN AND NEAR THE RUIDOSO AREA AND EXPECT AT LEAST
SOME POTENTIAL INTO CHAVES COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF NE AND E CENTRAL
NM LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SE SECTIONS DRIVEN MORE BY AN
ASSIST FROM RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH HEADING E ACROSS S
CENTRAL NM WHICH HAS DIMINISHED CAP A BIT AND INCREASE SOME
FORCING AMONG OTHER THINGS...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO SATURDAY
PM. NE ACTIVITY BEING HELPED BY WEAKER SHORT WAVE IN CO DROPPING
SE. WHILE INFLOW RATHER WEAK AGAIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS A
LITTLE RICHER THAN 24 HRS PREVIOUS. AGAIN EXPECTING SOME WEAK TO
MODERATE MOISTURE INTRUSION INTO THE WEST...MAINLY TO E OF
DIVIDE...TONIGHT WHICH MAY ALLOW ONE MORE BOUT OF MIXED DRY AND
MARGINALLY WET STORMS BETWEEN CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND THE DIVIDE FOR
MON AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THEREAFTER STILL EXPECTING NO
ACTIVITY W AND DOWNTURN OR POSSIBLY ZILCH IN E NM FOR TUE AS
WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE IN W GETS DRIVEN OUT BY INCREASING
WESTERLIES AND A LITTLE MORE DOWNWARD COMPONENT TO FLOW EVEN
ACROSS MOST OF THE E...THOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO
BE CAST OUT. VERY LIKELY TO BE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WIND AND RH
LEVELS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO END OF WEEK OR WEEKEND WITH
WEDNESDAY ALSO THE BEST CANDIDATE FOR WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
SINCE THIS PRODUCT ISSUED MUCH EARLIER THAN USUAL TODAY DUE TO
SEVERE WX...A TWEAK OR TWO TO SOME FIRST PERIOD GRIDS IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE ZFP IS ISSUED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  53  90  52  93 /  10  10   5   5
GALLUP..........................  45  87  44  89 /   5   5   5   0
GRANTS..........................  47  86  46  89 /  10  20   5   0
GLENWOOD........................  48  92  49  96 /   5   5   5   0
CHAMA...........................  39  76  38  80 /  20  20  10   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  49  80  48  86 /  20  20  20   5
RED RIVER.......................  36  69  35  76 /  20  40  20   5
TAOS............................  43  79  43  87 /  20  20  20   5
SANTA FE........................  49  82  49  87 /  20  20  10   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  51  84  51  89 /  20  20  10   5
ESPANOLA........................  46  87  49  92 /  20  20  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  61  89  62  92 /  10  10  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  55  90  56  94 /  10  10  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  56  86  57  90 /  20  20  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  58  88  60  92 /  10  20  10   5
SOCORRO.........................  56  89  56  93 /  10  10   5   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  50  82  50  85 /  20  20  20   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  45  83  45  87 /  20  20  20   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  52  88  56  92 /  10  10  10   5
RUIDOSO.........................  51  77  49  84 /  10  20  20   5
RATON...........................  46  77  45  88 /  30  40  20  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  46  76  46  86 /  30  30  20   5
ROY.............................  51  75  52  81 /  30  40  20  10
CLAYTON.........................  54  79  56  90 /  40  40  30  10
SANTA ROSA......................  56  85  53  91 /  30  30  20  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  57  84  59  94 /  50  40  30  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  58  86  60  93 /  30  30  20  10
CLOVIS..........................  56  84  58  93 /  50  40  30  10
PORTALES........................  57  86  59  93 /  50  40  30  10
ROSWELL.........................  61  88  62  96 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

43

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
539 AM MDT SUN JUN 3 2007

NMZ001>021-026-041200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
539 AM MDT SUN JUN 3 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN TO THE TEXAS STATE LINE. LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF GOLF BALLS...ONE AND THREE QUARTER INCHES...WILL BE THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. IN ADDITION...WINDS COULD GUST TO 65 MPH.
AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TORRENTIAL RAIN IN THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING OF
CREEKS AND SMALL STREAMS...RAPID FLOWS IN ARROYOS AND WASHES...
AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL AROUND AN INCH OR
LARGER WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED BETWEEN 300 PM AND MIDNIGHT
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO. THE AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE
ROUGHLY FROM TAOS TO SANTA FE...THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANDIA AND
MANZANO MOUNTAINS...TO WESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY.

40

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1249 PM MDT SUN JUN 03 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 PM     HAIL             3 N RUIDOSO             33.41N 105.64W
06/03/2007  E0.75 INCH       LINCOLN            NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DPORTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1253 PM MDT SUN JUN 03 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1253 PM     HAIL             RUIDOSO DOWNS           33.33N 105.60W
06/03/2007  E0.75 INCH       LINCOLN            NM   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

DPORTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
101 PM MDT SUN JUN 3 2007

NMZ004-005-031945-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
101 PM MDT SUN JUN 3 2007

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER WESTERN COLFAX COUNTY...

AT 100 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50
MPH AND HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 21 MILES NORTHWEST OF RATON CREWS AIRPORT TO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF PHILMONT SCOUT RANCH. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE BLACK LAKE...
CIMARRON...MIAMI...RAYADO AND UTE PARK.

THESE STORMS WERE NOT PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR
THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION.

DPORTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
214 PM MDT SUN JUN 3 2007

NMZ011-032130-
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
214 PM MDT SUN JUN 3 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST TORRANCE COUNTY...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CONTINUES OVER SOUTHWEST TORRANCE COUNTY NEAR
GRAN QUIVIRA...AND IS MOVING SOUTH AND EAST.

EXPECT HEAVY DOWNPOURS...A FEW MINUTES OF SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT THUNDER AND LIGHTNING AS THESE STORMS CROSS
INTO NORTHEAST SOCORRO COUNTY AND SPREAD OVER STATE ROAD 55 NEAR
CLAUNCH.

TIE DOWN LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD BE BLOWN ABOUT BY THE WIND...
AND DRIVERS OF LARGE OR TALL VEHICLES SHOULD EXPECT GUSTY AND
SHIFTING WINDS. HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WILL BOOST WATER LEVELS IN
DITCHES...ARROYOS...AND CULVERTS. IF DRIVING...EXPECT PATCHES OF
WATER COVERING THE ROAD. DO NOT USE FLOODED LOW WATER CROSSINGS...AND
DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS FLOWING WATER.

SHY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
221 PM MDT SUN JUN 03 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0207 PM     HAIL             2 S OCATE               36.15N 105.05W
06/03/2007  E0.75 INCH       MORA               NM   PUBLIC

&&

DPORTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
245 PM MDT SUN JUN 3 2007

NMZ005-007-032115-
FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-
245 PM MDT SUN JUN 3 2007

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER CENTRAL UNION COUNTY...

AT 243 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50
MPH AND HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF GRENVILLE TO 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
GRENVILLE TO 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GLADSTONE. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE MOUNT DORA AS WELL AS
HIGHWAYS 56 AND 87.

THESE STORMS WERE NOT PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR
THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION.

DPORTER