Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1020 AM MDT SUN JUN 3 2007

.UPDATE...SOME POPS...WEATHER AND SKY ADJUSTMENTS FOR S CENTRAL
AND SE NM TO REFLECT MORE THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING THAT AREA FM THE W. POPS RAISED SOMEWHAT ESPECIALLY IN
AND NEAR LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE AIRMASS QUITE MOIST. SEVERE RISK MAY
ACTUALLY BE DELAYED SLIGHTLY E CENTRAL AND SE IF CLOUD MASS HOLDS
FIRM...BUT STILL SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION FIRE UP
OTHERWISE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...306 AM MDT SUN JUN 3 2007...
CONTINUED ACTIVE OVER THE EAST THROUGH MONDAY AND
MAYBE TUESDAY.

EASTERN PLAINS WERE AGAIN HIT WITH SOME STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN.
LOOKS EVEN MORE ACTIVE TODAY AS DEEP MOISTURE AND DECENT SHEAR REMAIN
OVER THE E. EVEN MORE INSTABILITY EXPECTED TODAY AREA WIDE AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SRN NM. WILL HIGHLIGHT SEVERE WX
POTENTIAL AGAIN IN THE E...WHILE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF ISOLATED
STORMS IN THE W THIS PM AND EVE.

STORMS LIKELY TO CONTINUE WELL INTO TONIGHT OVER THE E AGAIN WHILE
THE ACTIVITY IN THE W QUICKLY DIMINISHES. ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ON MON
WITH POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE E. PERHAPS A BIT LESS
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THAN TODAY IF NO UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SE IN
THE NW FLOW.

SOME DRYING AND WARMING TO BEGIN ON TUE...ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY
STORMS IN THE W AND CNTRL ZONES...AND JUST ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE ERN PLAINS. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LESS AS WELL. WIND TO
NOTICEABLY INCREASE AREA WIDE TUE AS WELL AS W FLOW ALOFT INCREASES.
DRYING TREND AND INCREASING WINDS AND TEMPS TO CONTINUE ON WED. IN
FACT...STRONG WINDS IN THE E WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE ISSUANCE OF A
WIND ADVISORY. DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH LESS WIND...BUT STILL BREEZY TO WINDY IN PARTS OF THE
E. STORM SYSTEM PASSING TO THE N EARLY SAT COULD DROP A COLD FRONT S
INTO THE STATE...LEADING TO SOME COOLING AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP OVER THE N AND E. CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

43

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
539 AM MDT SUN JUN 3 2007

NMZ001>021-026-041200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
539 AM MDT SUN JUN 3 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN TO THE TEXAS STATE LINE. LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF GOLF BALLS...ONE AND THREE QUARTER INCHES...WILL BE THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. IN ADDITION...WINDS COULD GUST TO 65 MPH.
AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TORRENTIAL RAIN IN THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING OF
CREEKS AND SMALL STREAMS...RAPID FLOWS IN ARROYOS AND WASHES...
AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL AROUND AN INCH OR
LARGER WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED BETWEEN 300 PM AND MIDNIGHT
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO. THE AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE
ROUGHLY FROM TAOS TO SANTA FE...THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANDIA AND
MANZANO MOUNTAINS...TO WESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY.

40

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1228 PM MDT SUN JUN 3 2007

NMZ017-031900-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
1228 PM MDT SUN JUN 3 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY...

AT 1226 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 45 MPH AND
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER NEAR RUIDOSO. MOVEMENT WAS EAST
AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ALTO...BONITO LAKE...
GLENCOE...HOLLYWOOD AND RUIDOSO DOWNS.

THIS STORM WAS NOT PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION.

DPORTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1233 PM MDT SUN JUN 03 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             PORTALES                34.18N 103.35W
06/01/2007  E0.75 INCH       ROOSEVELT          NM   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT KSEL AT PORTALES

&&

JS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1241 PM MDT SUN JUN 03 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1238 PM     HAIL             RUIDOSO                 33.37N 105.64W
06/03/2007  E1.00 INCH       LINCOLN            NM   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

DPORTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1249 PM MDT SUN JUN 03 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 PM     HAIL             3 N RUIDOSO             33.41N 105.64W
06/03/2007  E0.75 INCH       LINCOLN            NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DPORTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1253 PM MDT SUN JUN 03 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1253 PM     HAIL             RUIDOSO DOWNS           33.33N 105.60W
06/03/2007  E0.75 INCH       LINCOLN            NM   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

DPORTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
101 PM MDT SUN JUN 3 2007

NMZ004-005-031945-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
101 PM MDT SUN JUN 3 2007

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER WESTERN COLFAX COUNTY...

AT 100 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50
MPH AND HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 21 MILES NORTHWEST OF RATON CREWS AIRPORT TO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF PHILMONT SCOUT RANCH. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE BLACK LAKE...
CIMARRON...MIAMI...RAYADO AND UTE PARK.

THESE STORMS WERE NOT PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR
THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION.

DPORTER