Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
200 PM MDT SUN AUG 26 2007

.DISCUSSION...EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS SHIFTING E OF NM...ALLOWING
FOR A TAP OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO MUCH OF THE STATE. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS CLEARLY VISIBLE ON SATELLITE OVER AZ. THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR E EARLY THIS COMING WEEK
BEFORE SHIFTING BACK OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND AZ FROM THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

DEEPER MOISTURE TAP TODAY AND DISTURBANCE TO OUR W HELPING TO FUEL
THUNDERSTORMS. THEY FIRED MUCH EARLIER TODAY AND THEY ARE ALREADY
SCATTERED IN COVERAGE OVER THE W AND N. MOST STORMS MOVING AT ONLY
10 TO 15 MPH SO SOME FLOODING A CONCERN THE REMAINDER OF THIS PM
AND EVENING...MOSTLY OF THE MINOR VARIETY. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE OVER THE NW HALF OF THE STATE. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL
DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT...BUT ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY LINGER THROUGH
THE NIGHT IN THE NW.

MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH THE NW HALF OF THE STATE
THE MOST FAVORED. THEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE STATE ON TUE WITH MOSTLY TERRAIN DRIVEN...SLOW MOVING STORMS.
BY WED THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED PREDOMINATELY OVER AZ. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE EASTERN AREAS BECOMING MORE FAVORED FOR STORMS.
AND IN FACT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS TO OUR N TUE
NIGHT INTO WED ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ADD
A FRESH SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL...UPSLOPE FLOW. THE FAR NE SHOULD BE
THE MOST FOCUSED AREA FOR CONVECTION TUE PM AND EVE...WITH MUCH OF
THE E IN LINE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WED PM AND NIGHT.

THE E WILL REMAIN THE FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTION FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. BUT SOME MOISTURE SHOULD SLOSH OVER INTO
THE W FOR ISOLATED COVERAGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY ACTIVE
PERIOD FROM THU THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT SUN. CHJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  64  88  61  90 /  40  30  30  20
GALLUP..........................  58  84  55  86 /  40  20  30  20
GRANTS..........................  56  84  54  87 /  30  20  30  20
GLENWOOD........................  60  89  62  90 /  30  20  20  20
CHAMA...........................  49  80  51  79 /  40  30  30  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  58  85  56  85 /  30  20  20  20
RED RIVER.......................  45  76  45  73 /  30  30  30  30
TAOS............................  54  84  51  84 /  30  30  30  30
SANTA FE........................  58  88  57  86 /  30  20  20  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  60  88  58  86 /  30  20  20  20
ESPANOLA........................  61  90  60  87 /  30  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  68  90  67  89 /  30  10  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  62  91  65  91 /  30  10  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  65  89  65  87 /  30  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  66  90  66  89 /  30  20  20  20
SOCORRO.........................  63  90  62  89 /  20  10  20  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  60  84  60  82 /  30  20  20  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  54  88  55  86 /  20  10  20  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  62  92  61  91 /  10  10  20  20
RUIDOSO.........................  56  83  55  82 /  20  20  20  20
RATON...........................  54  88  53  86 /  30  10  20  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  56  86  55  83 /  20  20  20  20
ROY.............................  61  88  60  86 /  20  10  10  20
CLAYTON.........................  63  92  62  88 /  10   5  10  20
SANTA ROSA......................  61  93  62  92 /  10   5  10  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  67  96  66  94 /  10   0   0  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  65  93  65  91 /   5   5   5  10
CLOVIS..........................  65  93  64  92 /   0   0   0  10
PORTALES........................  64  94  65  94 /   0   0   0  10
ROSWELL.........................  67  95  66  95 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

40

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
546 AM MDT SUN AUG 26 2007

NMZ001>021-026-271200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
546 AM MDT SUN AUG 26 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY WEST
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHERE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING MAY OCCUR. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST
NEW MEXICO COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY WEST
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHERE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING MAY OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

CONTACT LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO
REPORT FLOODED PROPERTY OR ROADWAYS.

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