Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Las Vegas, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 2 2006

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST AND UNSTABLE OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA LEADING TO
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO MUCH
OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE BATTLE CONTINUES BETWEEN THE DRIER AIR TO THE WEST
AND THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO THE EAST WITH THE DIVIDING LINE
LOOKING TO BE CLOSE TO LAS VEGAS. CONVECTION A LITTLE SLOW TO GET
GOING TODAY BUT IT DID FINALLY TAKE OFF OVER LINCOLN...CLARK AND
MOHAVE COUNTIES AND TO SOME EXTENT SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. WILL KEEP
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THESE AREAS THIS EVENING AND WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER MOHAVE COUNTY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED MUCH OF THE LAST TWO NIGHTS AND MODELS ARE
INDICATING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER MOHAVE COUNTY ALL NIGHT.
MODELS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
RIDGE AXIS BECOMES ORIENTED SUCH THAT DRY AIR GETS PUSHED SOUTH AND
EAST WITH REALLY JUST MOHAVE COUNTY HAVING ANY CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. GFS POSITIONS THE HIGH MORE OVER UTAH WITH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY EXTENDING BACK ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. I AM NOT QUITE READY TO BUY INTO
THE NAM TOTALLY AS IT CAN BE QUITE DIFFICULT TO SCOUR MOISTURE OUT
OF HERE ONCE IT IS IN PLACE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS TO
THE EAST CAN BRING MOISTURE BACK IN A HURRY. SO...WENT WITH A BIT OF
A COMPROMISE...KEEPING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS ALL OF MOHAVE
COUNTY AND EASTERN LINCOLN AND CLARK COUNTIES AND SOUTHEAST SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY ALONG WITH THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND SHEEP RANGE.
STILL DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURES TRENDS AND WE SHOULD
BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM...LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS EAST
AND FLATTENS...THE MODELS DEPICT A UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TRAILING TROF
MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEAK TROF EXPECTED TO
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST EXCEPT IN SHIFTING THE AREA
INTO DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THURSDAY. THE GFS IS STILL INDICATING
THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST
ON WEDNESDAY...AND WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. POPS WILL BE ON A DECREASING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERING IN MOHAVE COUNTY
TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR POPS EACH AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TEMPS REMAINING NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

.AVIATION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE PEACH
SPRINGS CORRIDOR AND TO A LESSER EXTENT IN THE MORMON MESA CORRIDOR.
WHILE THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE SPRING MOUNTAINS WEST OF KLAS
MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN THE BEATTY AND DAGGETT
CORRIDORS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FROM ERRATIC AND GUSTY
THUNDERSTORM WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO END BY 14Z.
TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY DESCRIBE EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
AREA TERMINALS. SEE TAFS FOR KLAS...KVGT...KDRA...KBIH...KDAG...
KEED.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NV...NONE.
.AZ...NONE.
.CA...NONE.

HARRISON/MOSES