Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Las Vegas, NV

000 
WWUS55 KVEF 032018
SVSVEF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
116 PM PDT MON JUL 3 2006

CAC071-032030-
/O.CON.KVEF.SV.W.0018.000000T0000Z-060703T2030Z/
SAN BERNARDINO CA-
116 PM PDT MON JUL 3 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM PDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...

AT 113 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL...
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER
EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...OR ABOUT 7 MILES SOUTH 
OF SANDY VALLEY...AND WAS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. 

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
INDICATED COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3554 11565 3560 11544 3570 11552 3579 11563
      3579 11580 3566 11579

$$
SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1025 AM PDT MON JUL 3 2006

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH MIDWEEK. MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDER THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EASTERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.
&&

.UPDATE...MOIST AND UNTABLE AIR MASS OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND THIS
MORNING AND FORECAST WAS UPDATED EARLY THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THAT IN SEVERAL ZONES. LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES MAY STAY DOWN DUE TO
THIS CLOUD COVER AND WILL UPDATE TO LOWER MAX TEMPS FOR SOME ZONES
TODAY. PRECIPITATION FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. LOOKING AHEAD...12Z
GFS REALLY GOING GANGBUSTERS TONIGHT WITH A LITTLE LOW MOVING NORTH
THROUGH MOHAVE COUNTY AND INDICATIONS OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND
HEAVY RAIN. MAY ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH LATER TODAY FOR TONIGHT IN
MOHAVE COUNTY AND POSSIBLY CLARK AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. WILL TAKE A
LITTLE MORE TIME TO EVALUATE THIS THREAT AND MAKE A FINAL DECISION
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...333 AM PDT MON JUL 3 2006
.SHORT TERM...FOR THE THIRD CONSECUTIVE NIGHT NOCTURNAL STORMS STILL
GOING ON ACROSS EASTERN LINCOLN/CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. AS WITH
THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHT MOST STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND SUNRISE
BUT WOULD EXPECT A FEW TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING ACROSS MOHAVE
COUNTY. 00Z/06Z NAM BACKED OFF ON ANY THOUGHT OF DRYING DURING
IMMEDIATE TIMEFRAME (TODAY/TONIGHT). NAM STILL SHOWS SOME DRYING BY
WEDNESDAY BUT NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE AS PREVIOUS RUNS. GFS/NAM
MIDLEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTS CYCLONIC TWIST OVER NORTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MODELS SLOWLY DRIFTING
FEATURE NORTHWEST TOWARD SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS KEEP
FEATURE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA/NORTHWEST ARIZONA OVERNIGHT AND WOULD
EXPECT ANOTHER NOCTURNAL LIGHTNING DISPLAY. FEATURE FINALLY GETS
KICKED NORTHEAST INTO UTAH TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE/LIMITED
INSTABILITY REMAIN ACROSS LINCOLN/CLARK/MOHAVE AND EASTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY WEDNESDAY. DID LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TUESDAY AS BELIEVE THERE
WILL BE MORE CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...NOT MUCH CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA THURSDAY
THROUGHOUT MONDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT FLATTENING OF THE
RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD. POPS WILL
BE LIMITED TO THE EXTREME EASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA WHERE MODELS HINT
AT THE PRESENCE OF LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE ACROSS NRN AZ.  THE REST OF
THE CWA WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN DRY SW FLOW.
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES...WITH TEMPS REMAINING NEAR NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MINIMAL CHANGE TO HGT/THICKNESS VALUES
EXPECTED. INTERESTING TO NOTE...THE END OF THE GFS RUN INDICATING AN
UPR LVL LOW BEGINNING TO DEVLP AROUND 130W/30N NEXT MONDAY
MORNING...WILL BE CURIOUS TO SEE WHETHER FUTURE MODEL RUNS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION.
&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
AROUND THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF KLAS.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS MAY CAUSE ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS
AT TIMES. TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY DESCRIBE EXPECTED WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR AREA TERMINALS. SEE TAFS FOR
KLAS...KVGT...KDRA...KBIH...KDAG...KEED.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NV...NONE.
.AZ...NONE.
.CA...NONE.

HARRISON/PIERCE/KENNEDY