Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 062142
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
241 PM MST TUE JUN 6 2006

AZC019-023-062200-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-060606T2200Z/
SANTA CRUZ AZ-PIMA AZ-
241 PM MST TUE JUN 6 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM MST
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PIMA AND NORTHWESTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES...

AT 235 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF 
GREEN VALLEY...MOVING WEST AT 35 MPH. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE 
OUT OF NORTHWESTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY BY 250 PM MST.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MST
TUESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA.

LAT...LON 3159 11106 3175 11099 3188 11135 3170 11145

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 062158
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
256 PM MST TUE JUN 6 2006

AZC019-023-062206-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-060606T2200Z/
SANTA CRUZ AZ-PIMA AZ-
256 PM MST TUE JUN 6 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PIMA AND 
NORTHWESTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 300 PM MST...

AT 250 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE STORMS NEAR AMADO 
AND ARIVACA JUNCTION WERE NO LONGER SEVERE. THEY ARE STILL STRONG AS 
THEY MOVE INTO OPEN DESERT AREAS OF PIMA COUNTY WEST OF ARIVACA 
ROAD. MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS IS TO THE WEST AROUND 25 MPH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MST
TUESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA.

LAT...LON 3159 11106 3175 11099 3188 11135 3170 11145

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
942 AM MST TUE JUN 6 2006

.SYNOPSIS...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER ARIZONA MOVES TO THE
EAST TODAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS...BRINGING MOISTURE
INTO ARIZONA. THE INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA...WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS. A DRYING TREND RETURNS AS THE WEEK COMES TO AN
END...AS A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TUCSON 12Z SOUNDING PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.09
INCHES...LIFTED INDICES MINUS 4 TO MINUS 6 AND CAPE IN THE 1900S.
MOISTURE IS ABOVE 600 MB WHILE ACTUAL PRECIP WILL BE LIMITED...GUSTY
WINDS AND DRY LIGHTING POSES A RISK LATER TODAY. CO/NM HIGH AND THE
BAJA SPUR LOW BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY THIS EVENING THROUGH WED
EVENING...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO A
DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW...SUGGESTED BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE AT A MAX IN PHASE...AND SHORTLY AFTER DAYTIME
MAX HEATING. GFS OMEGA INTERESTING WITH MAX CENTERS ON PERIPHERY OF
RICH DEEP MOISTURE...SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE INITIAL MOISTURE INCREASE TODAY SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY DEEPER
MOISTURE WEDNESDAY AS THE BAJA LOW STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. IN GENERAL...POP VALUES INCREASE THIS EVENING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MODERATED TO
NEAR NORMAL RANGES...COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. A DRIER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION DEVELOPS FRIDAY AS A TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL END IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF ARIZONA THROUGH
THURSDAY...BRINGS DEEP RICH MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH...AND INCREASES CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE
RAINFALL...BECAUSE IT IS VERY DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE
RELATIVELY DRY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HAVE GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS...AS WELL AS THE RISK OF DRY LIGHTNING.
&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON