Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
255 PM MST TUE JUN 6 2006

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...AND A LOW CENTER NEAR
THE BAJA...WILL CONTINUE SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT TO BRING MOISTURE
INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE INCREASE OF
MOISTURE...BRINGS A RISK OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING...AND MAY BE REPEATED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE BAJA LOW MOVES NORTH
THURSDAY...A DRY SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE OFF TO THE
EAST. THIS WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
RANGES IN THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOWER LEVEL HEATING HAS KICKED THE UNSTABLE LAYER
UP INTO THE ENRICHED MID LEVEL MOISTURE...DEEP CONVECTION IN
PROGRESS...AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. INCREASING
MID-UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS GIVES A BOOST TO THE CONVECTION...
AND COULD POSSIBLY SUSTAIN THE STORMS BEYOND THE EVENING HOURS.
CONVECTION SHOULD REPEAT WEDNESDAY...AS PATTERN REMAINS
QUASI-STATIONARY. A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION
DEVELOPS FRIDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPS AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF
CLOSED LOW. AS A RESULT...A GRADUAL END...WEST TO EAST...OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF ARIZONA THROUGH
THURSDAY...BRINGS DEEP RICH MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH...AND INCREASES CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE
RAINFALL...BECAUSE IT IS VERY DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE
RELATIVELY DRY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HAVE GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS...AS WELL AS THE RISK OF DRY LIGHTNING.
&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8
PM MST...SOUTH CENTRAL AZ COUNTIES...PIMA...AND FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
COCHISE...GRAHAM...SANTA CRUZ.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON