Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 251947
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1247 PM MST TUE JUL 25 2006

AZC003-023-252000-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0065.000000T0000Z-060725T2000Z/
COCHISE AZ-SANTA CRUZ AZ-
1247 PM MST TUE JUL 25 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM MST
FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SANTA CRUZ AND SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE
COUNTIES...

AT 1240 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PARKER CANYON LAKE...OR ABOUT 14 MILES
SOUTH OF SIERRA VISTA. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF THE INDICATED COUNTIES.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3142 11026 3145 11047 3121 11054 3117 11029

$$
EVANS
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 252002
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1259 PM MST TUE JUL 25 2006

AZC003-023-252009-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0065.000000T0000Z-060725T2000Z/
COCHISE AZ-SANTA CRUZ AZ-
1259 PM MST TUE JUL 25 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SANTA
CRUZ AND SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 100 PM MST...

THE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THIS WARNING HAS MOVED SOUTH OF 
ARIZONA AND REDUCED IN INTENSITY. THEREFORE...THE WARNING WILL 
EXPIRE AT 1 PM. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN MAY HAVE CAUSED SMALL STREAMS TO 
FLOW SO DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH WATER ON THE ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3142 11026 3145 11047 3121 11054 3117 11029

$$
EVANS
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
914 AM MST TUE JUL 25 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHEAST...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF
CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
IN ADDITION...DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER HIGH POSITIONED
OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN UTAH. WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE HIGH ARE HELPING TO TRIGGER
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA JUST NORTH
OF THE PHOENIX AREA.

THE AIRMASS IS DEFINITELY MOISTENING WITH THE 12Z KTUS SOUNDING
GOING FROM 1.26 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER YESTERDAY MORNING TO
1.46 INCHES THIS MORNING. THE KTUS SOUNDING IS NOT AVAILABLE IN
AWIPS THIS MORNING SO MAKING MODIFICATIONS NOT READILY AVAILABLE.
LOOKING AT THE SOUNDING FROM SPCS HOMEPAGE SHOWS EXPECTED CAPE
VALUES THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM AROUND 1600 TO 2700 J/KG
DEPENDING ON THE METHOD USED TO LIFT THE PARCEL. WE SHOULD SEE MUCH
MORE ACTIVITY TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY SINCE WE ARE WETTER AT THE
SURFACE AND THE CAP THAT WAS PRESENT ON YESTERDAYS SOUNDING AT ABOUT
450MB IS NO LONGER THERE.

THE AIRMASS OVER ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN CONSIDERABLY
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH THE LAST SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS
FROM YUMA DEFINITELY SHOWING A STRONG GULF SURGE. LOOKING AT THE
YUMA OBSERVATIONS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE WINDS
WERE CALM AT 1 AM...BUT HAVE STEADILY INCREASED OVERNIGHT AND THIS
MORNING WITH THE LAST OBSERVATION SHOWING A SSE WIND AT 19 KNOTS.
THE PREVIOUS OBSERVATION HAD A SSE WIND OF 27 KNOTS GUSTING TO 34
KNOTS. YUMAS DEWPOINT IS CURRENTLY AT 76 DEGREES. FARTHER EAST OVER
MY FORECAST AREA DEWPOINT TEMPS AS OF 15Z (8 AM MST)...WERE RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WERE IN THE
60S. THESE VALUES ARE 7 TO 11 DEGREES WARMER/WETTER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

THE POP GRIDS I INHERITED HAVE SCATTERED POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES DURING THE EVENING HOURS
TODAY. THIS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE...SO NO CHANGES EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON SEEM TO BE ON
TRACK...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS
ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...STILL ON THE DRY SIDE IN LOWER LEVELS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH. A
DEEPER SURGE IS EXPECTED UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS THE REMAINS OF
A TROPICAL SYSTEM HELPS SHEPHERD A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH INPUT
FROM FREQUENT LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OUTFLOWS FROM SOUTHERN
SONORA. A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE REMNANT LOW COMING
UP THE BAJA COAST...AS WELL AS A DECENT SHEAR PATTERN WITH MORE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVELS AND EASTERLY COMPONENT TO MID LEVELS. ALL
TOGETHER IT SHOULD MEAN A STRONG UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION...AS THE DRY AIR MIXES OUT AND REMAINING POCKETS ENTRAIN
INTO MOISTER AIR...SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEAR CLOSE SCRUTINY THIS
AFTERNOON. BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WET MICROBURSTS AND
HEAVY RAIN MAY BECOME A CONCERN AS WE MOISTEN UP QUITE A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

MOLLERE

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON