Flash Flood Warning 23, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 252030
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
129 PM MST TUE JUL 25 2006

AZC003-252145-
COCHISE AZ-
129 PM MST TUE JUL 25 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM MST FOR EAST
CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY...

AT 122 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR RUCKER CANYON...OR ABOUT 33 MILES NORTH OF 
DOUGLAS...AND NEARLY STATIONARY.

THE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING WILL BE NEAR...
  RUCKER CANYON BY 140 PM MST

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL 
CREEKS AND STREAMS AS WELL AS COUNTRY ROADS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3166 10953 3165 10921 3200 10934 3198 10953

$$
EVANS
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 252135
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
233 PM MST TUE JUL 25 2006

AZC003-252143-
COCHISE AZ-
233 PM MST TUE JUL 25 2006

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR EAST CENTRAL
COCHISE COUNTY...

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY...INCLUDING 
THE AREA AROUND RUCKER CANYON HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. RAINFALL 
HAS ENDED OVER THE GREATER RUCKER CANYON AREA AND NO FLOW HAS BEEN 
REPORTED IN RUCKER CREEK.

LAT...LON 3166 10953 3165 10921 3200 10934 3198 10953

$$
SCHAFFNER
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
914 AM MST TUE JUL 25 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHEAST...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF
CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
IN ADDITION...DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER HIGH POSITIONED
OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN UTAH. WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE HIGH ARE HELPING TO TRIGGER
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA JUST NORTH
OF THE PHOENIX AREA.

THE AIRMASS IS DEFINITELY MOISTENING WITH THE 12Z KTUS SOUNDING
GOING FROM 1.26 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER YESTERDAY MORNING TO
1.46 INCHES THIS MORNING. THE KTUS SOUNDING IS NOT AVAILABLE IN
AWIPS THIS MORNING SO MAKING MODIFICATIONS NOT READILY AVAILABLE.
LOOKING AT THE SOUNDING FROM SPCS HOMEPAGE SHOWS EXPECTED CAPE
VALUES THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM AROUND 1600 TO 2700 J/KG
DEPENDING ON THE METHOD USED TO LIFT THE PARCEL. WE SHOULD SEE MUCH
MORE ACTIVITY TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY SINCE WE ARE WETTER AT THE
SURFACE AND THE CAP THAT WAS PRESENT ON YESTERDAYS SOUNDING AT ABOUT
450MB IS NO LONGER THERE.

THE AIRMASS OVER ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN CONSIDERABLY
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH THE LAST SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS
FROM YUMA DEFINITELY SHOWING A STRONG GULF SURGE. LOOKING AT THE
YUMA OBSERVATIONS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE WINDS
WERE CALM AT 1 AM...BUT HAVE STEADILY INCREASED OVERNIGHT AND THIS
MORNING WITH THE LAST OBSERVATION SHOWING A SSE WIND AT 19 KNOTS.
THE PREVIOUS OBSERVATION HAD A SSE WIND OF 27 KNOTS GUSTING TO 34
KNOTS. YUMAS DEWPOINT IS CURRENTLY AT 76 DEGREES. FARTHER EAST OVER
MY FORECAST AREA DEWPOINT TEMPS AS OF 15Z (8 AM MST)...WERE RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WERE IN THE
60S. THESE VALUES ARE 7 TO 11 DEGREES WARMER/WETTER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

THE POP GRIDS I INHERITED HAVE SCATTERED POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BUT SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES DURING THE EVENING HOURS
TODAY. THIS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE...SO NO CHANGES EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON SEEM TO BE ON
TRACK...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS
ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...STILL ON THE DRY SIDE IN LOWER LEVELS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH. A
DEEPER SURGE IS EXPECTED UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS THE REMAINS OF
A TROPICAL SYSTEM HELPS SHEPHERD A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH INPUT
FROM FREQUENT LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OUTFLOWS FROM SOUTHERN
SONORA. A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE REMNANT LOW COMING
UP THE BAJA COAST...AS WELL AS A DECENT SHEAR PATTERN WITH MORE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVELS AND EASTERLY COMPONENT TO MID LEVELS. ALL
TOGETHER IT SHOULD MEAN A STRONG UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION...AS THE DRY AIR MIXES OUT AND REMAINING POCKETS ENTRAIN
INTO MOISTER AIR...SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEAR CLOSE SCRUTINY THIS
AFTERNOON. BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WET MICROBURSTS AND
HEAVY RAIN MAY BECOME A CONCERN AS WE MOISTEN UP QUITE A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

MOLLERE

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON