Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
220 PM MST SUN JUL 2 2006

.SYNOPSIS...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE AZ AT
THIS TIME WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR WRN PIMA/SE PINAL COUNTIES WHERE
THESE AREAS WERE VOID OF PRECIP ECHOES. MOST ACTIVITY REMAINING NEAR
MOUNTAINS THOUGH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH NICKEL-SIZED HAIL WAS
OBSERVED VIA TRAINED SPOTTER AROUND 1950Z IN PATAGONIA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED MOST SECTIONS THIS EVENING...AND A FEW STORMS
MAY EXCEED SEVERE THRESHOLDS WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
BELIEVE THE BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL END AROUND MIDNIGHT THOUGH A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE UNTIL DAYBREAK MONDAY ACROSS WRN
SECTIONS.

EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE INTO MID-WEEK AS UPPER HIGH
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY NORTH OF THIS FORECAST AREA. AMPLE MOISTURE
IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL MEAN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. PER COORD WITH WFO/S
PSR/FGZ OPTED TO REFLECT INCREASED POP SCENARIO DURING THE MONDAY-
TUESDAY PERIOD. GFS SHIFTS UPPER HIGH SEWD BY THURSDAY AND MID-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY SWLY BY FRIDAY. HOWEVER FAIRLY MOIST 700-
300 MB LAYER STILL PROGGED VIA GFS DURING THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY PERIOD
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN CHANCEY-TYPE POPS MOST SECTIONS. TRENDED POPS
DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEKEND BUT BELIEVE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY LOW-GRADE POPS. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY
JULY. HOWEVER EXPECT ABOVE-NORMAL MIN TEMPS TO CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

BF

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
135 PM MST SUN JUL 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 PM     HAIL             N PATAGONIA             31.54N 110.75W
07/02/2006  E0.88 INCH       SANTA CRUZ         AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL OCCURRED IN AND AROUND PATAGONIA WITH SIZES RANGING
            FROM PEA TO NICKEL AND COVERING THE GROUND IN SOME
            PLACES.

&&

GMOLLERE