Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 022013
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
112 PM MST SUN JUL 2 2006

AZC023-022022-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-060702T2015Z/
SANTA CRUZ AZ-
112 PM MST SUN JUL 2 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTY
EXPIRES AT 115 PM MST...

TRAINED SPOTTERS INDICATED THAT THIS STORM PRODUCED PEA TO NICKEL 
SIZE HAIL AS THIS STORM MOVED OVER PATAGONIA. THE STORM HAS SINCE 
DECREASED SOMEWHAT IN INTENSITY AS THE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 115 PM 
MST.

LAT...LON 3141 11060 3159 11061 3165 11096 3139 11096

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
935 AM MST SUN JUL 2 2006

.SYNOPSIS...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN SECTIONS AT THIS TIME...THOUGH GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES PREVAILED OVER FAR ERN LOCALES. DEWPOINTS VALID 16Z WERE IN
THE 50S-LOWER 60S AND THESE VALUES WERE GENERALLY 2-5 DEGS HIGHER
VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. SURFACE TEMPS WERE ABOUT 2-5 DEGS LOWER VERSUS
THIS TIME SAT. 02/12Z KTUS SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.25
INCHES...LIFTED INDEX OF MINUS 5...AND UNMODIFIED SB CAPE OF 2886
J/KG...ALL VALUES SIMILAR TO THE 01/12Z SOUNDING. MID-LEVEL FLOW
WOULD FAVOR WESTERLY STORM MOTIONS THOUGH SLOWER VERSUS SAT. 01/12Z
UPPER AIR PLOTS INDICATED LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TX WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NW NEW MEXICO. LIGHT ELY/SELY FLOW PREVAILED
OVER SRN AZ.

FOR TODAY...BELIEVE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WILL BE SIMILAR TO SAT WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING VICINITY WHITE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS NEAR THE SRN MOUNTAINS...CHIRICAHUAS/HUACHUCAS/
ETC. 02/12Z NAM DEPICTS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE PRECIP AREA BY THIS EVENING
WITH JUST FAR WRN PIMA/SE PINAL/FAR ERN COCHISE COUNTIES REMAINING
DRY...AT LEAST FROM THIS MODEL PERSPECTIVE. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT
BELIEVE SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MOST
SECTIONS SEEMS REASONABLE. THUS EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO APPROACH 50 KTS
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER
CONCERN WILL BE ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE...
AS WELL AS SLOWER STORM MOTIONS EXPECTED.

EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK AT LEAST AS
UPPER HIGH REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY NORTH OF THIS FORECAST AREA.
RESULTANT FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND DAYTIME
HEATING WILL MEAN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. INCREASED PROGGED MOISTURE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
UPSWING IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MON-TUE PERIOD AND THIS
SCENARIO IS WELL-HANDLED IN THE GRIDDED DATA POP FORECASTS. GFS
SHIFTS UPPER HIGH SEWD BY THUR AND MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY SWLY BY FRI. FAIRLY MOIST 700-300 MB LAYER STILL
PROGGED VIA GFS DURING THE FRI-SAT PERIOD SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN AT
LEAST LOW-GRADE POPS.

DAYTIME MAX TEMPS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS
FOR EARLY JULY. HOWEVER EXPECT ABOVE-NORMAL MIN TEMPS TO CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

BF

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON