Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
145 PM MST SAT AUG 12 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA FOR MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE WEST COAST WILL TURN THE FLOW
MORE WESTERLY RESULTING IN LOWER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGHER LATITUDE TROUGH STARTING TO OVERTOP THE RIDGE
WITH THE MAIN AXIS PHASING EASTWARD. ALREADY STARTING TO SEE A MORE
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO FLOW IN MID LEVELS OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. KTUS
SOUNDING STILL SHOWED 1.66 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER...BUT
ULTIMATELY THIS WILL BEGIN TO LEAD TO SOME DRYING OVER THE NEXT 48
HRS...AT LEAST FOR WESTERN AREAS. ALSO...A MORE WESTERLY STEERING
LEVEL FLOW IS NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR VALLEY STORMS IN MANY LOCATIONS.
STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE TODAY...WITH AFORE MENTIONED PW VALUES AND
SURFACE DEWPTS IN THE 60S COMMON ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. GOOD
HEATING...WE HAVE HAD NO PROBLEM STARTING UP SCATTERED CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED.

WITH THE NEAREST HIGH CENTER DEPRESSED SOUTHWARD AS A TROUGH TRIES
TO SET UP NEAR THE WEST COAST...A STRONGER SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
FLOW SHOULD START TO PUSH AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE OUT OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY WESTERN LOCATIONS EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. EXPECT
EASTERN AREAS AND ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINS TO HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND EVEN IF WE DO MANAGE TO PUSH THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE BACK FOR A BIT IT WONT BE FAR AWAY AS SONORA AND NEW
MEXICO STAY ACTIVE.
&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.
&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON