Flash Flood Warning 81, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 122150
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
248 PM MST SAT AUG 12 2006

AZC003-122245-
COCHISE AZ-
248 PM MST SAT AUG 12 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM MST FOR WEST 
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY...

AT 246 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER 
SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY. RADAR ESTIMATES OF BETWEEN ONE AND TWO 
INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED IN THE LAST HOUR IN THE WARNED AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO TOMBSTONE...
SAINT DAVID...KARTCHNER CAVERNS STATE PARK AND FAIRBANK.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3136 11043 3134 10987 3197 11002 3188 11043

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
ZELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
145 PM MST SAT AUG 12 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA FOR MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE WEST COAST WILL TURN THE FLOW
MORE WESTERLY RESULTING IN LOWER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGHER LATITUDE TROUGH STARTING TO OVERTOP THE RIDGE
WITH THE MAIN AXIS PHASING EASTWARD. ALREADY STARTING TO SEE A MORE
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO FLOW IN MID LEVELS OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. KTUS
SOUNDING STILL SHOWED 1.66 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER...BUT
ULTIMATELY THIS WILL BEGIN TO LEAD TO SOME DRYING OVER THE NEXT 48
HRS...AT LEAST FOR WESTERN AREAS. ALSO...A MORE WESTERLY STEERING
LEVEL FLOW IS NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR VALLEY STORMS IN MANY LOCATIONS.
STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE TODAY...WITH AFORE MENTIONED PW VALUES AND
SURFACE DEWPTS IN THE 60S COMMON ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. GOOD
HEATING...WE HAVE HAD NO PROBLEM STARTING UP SCATTERED CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED.

WITH THE NEAREST HIGH CENTER DEPRESSED SOUTHWARD AS A TROUGH TRIES
TO SET UP NEAR THE WEST COAST...A STRONGER SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
FLOW SHOULD START TO PUSH AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE OUT OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY WESTERN LOCATIONS EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. EXPECT
EASTERN AREAS AND ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINS TO HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND EVEN IF WE DO MANAGE TO PUSH THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE BACK FOR A BIT IT WONT BE FAR AWAY AS SONORA AND NEW
MEXICO STAY ACTIVE.
&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.
&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON