Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST FRI AUG 11 2006

.SYNOPSIS...AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO TODAY AS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA RESIDES IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVING OVER THE WEST COAST WILL TURN THE FLOW MORE WESTERLY
THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN LOWER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON MUCH BETTER THAN THIS TIME
THURSDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT ACTION OCCURRING IN COCHISE COUNTY.
ALTHOUGH THE STORMS ARE HIGHLY REFLECTIVE THIS AFTERNOON...THE WIND
SPEEDS ARE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AND HAIL HAS BEEN AROUND PEA SIZE.
WHAT THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN IS RAINERS WITH RADAR DEPICTING AND
SPOTTER REPORTING BETWEEN 2 TO 3 INCHES WHICH HAS LED TO SOME
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING WITH SOME DEBRIS FLOW ON HIGHWAY 366 IN
GRAHAM COUNTY AND SOME ROAD WASHED OUT IN COCHISE COUNTY. AS OF 2
PM...STORMS CONTINUE TO MERGE AND MAY DEVELOP AN MCS OUT OF THIS
BEFORE THE AFTERNOON IS OVER. FROM THE SATELLITE VIEW POINT...GRAHAM
GREENLEE AND COCHISE COUNTIES ARE IN THE BEST DIVERGENCE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN BAJA. THERE IS ALSO A
WEAKENING MCV SOUTHWEST OF NOGALES THAT MAY ALSO BE AIDING IN THE
STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EAST OF TUCSON. NOT MUCH IS
HAPPENING FROM TUCSON WEST BUT SHOULD SEE SCATTERED ACTIVITY THIS
EVENING. MAY HAVE A FEW LINGERING STORMS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

BEYOND TODAY...A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND WILL STRENGTHEN
THIS WEEKEND AS THE AXIS SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A SLOW...LET ME EMPHASIS SLOW...DRYING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL AS OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ARE MODERATED BY AMOUNT OF CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.
&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1036 AM MST FRI AUG 11 2006

AZZ019-029>035-120700-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
1036 AM MST FRI AUG 11 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK OF HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS EXTREMELY MOIST
AND RATHER UNSTABLE. THE GROUND OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
REMAINS NEARLY SATURATED. STEERING FLOW REMAINS VERY LIGHT. THERE
ARE TWO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WHICH MAY ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ONE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ARIZONA. THE OTHER OVER NORTHERN SONORA WAS DRIFTING NORTHWEST
TOWARD THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR INITIAL STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE WHERE SKIES WERE CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING...NAMELY OVER
EXTREME EASTERN PIMA...EXTREME EASTERN PINAL...GREENLEE...GRAHAM
AND COCHISE COUNTIES. HOWEVER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OVER SANTA CRUZ...THE REST OF PIMA...AND
WESTERN PINAL COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

DUE TO VERY SLOW AND ERRATIC CELL MOTIONS...THE PRIMARY RISK WILL BE
FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN PER HOUR FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS...
ESPECIALLY NEAR MOUNTAINS. AN ISOLATED WET DOWNBURST OR TWO IS
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IF THE STORMS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER
TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN...ARE POSSIBLE
AGAIN ON SATURDAY BEFORE A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PYTLAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
111 PM MST FRI AUG 11 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 PM     FLASH FLOOD      13 SSW SAFFORD          32.66N 109.78W
08/11/2006                   GRAHAM             AZ   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            ADOT REPORTED WATER OVER THE ROADS AND OUT OF BANKS AT
            MILE POST 121/NOON CREEK AND MILE POST 123/WET CANYON.
            NOTED BY DPS AT 1245. ROCKS AND DEBRIS WERE ALSO OVER THE
            ROAD.

&&

HHANSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
154 PM MST FRI AUG 11 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     FLASH FLOOD      13 NE TOMBSTONE         31.85N 109.91W
08/11/2006                   COCHISE            AZ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ON CHARLESTON ROAD...BETWEEN MIL POSTS 12 AND
            14...BETWEEN TOMBSTONE AND SIERRA VISTA...THE ROAD HAS
            BEEN FLOODED AND PART OF THE ROAD HAS BEEN WASHED AWAY.

&&

HHANSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
210 PM MST FRI AUG 11 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     FLASH FLOOD      13 NE SIERRA VISTA      31.70N 110.17W
08/11/2006                   COCHISE            AZ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ON CHARLESTON ROAD...BETWEEN MILE POSTS 12 AND
            14...BETWEEN TOMBSTONE AND SIERRA VISTA...THE ROAD HAS
            BEEN FLOODED AND PART OF THE ROAD HAS BEEN WASHED AWAY.

&&

HHANSON

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