Flash Flood Warning 76, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 110216
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
715 PM MST THU AUG 10 2006

AZC021-110330-
PINAL AZ-
715 PM MST THU AUG 10 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM MST FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY...

AT 715 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG HIGHWAY 79 
BETWEEN FLORENCE AND ORACLE JUNCTION. THE STORM WAS NEARLY 
STATIONARY.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL 
WASHES AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS...AND ROADS AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE 
AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

LAT...LON 3258 11126 3261 11084 3289 11085 3285 11129

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 110259
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
758 PM MST THU AUG 10 2006

AZC021-110308-
PINAL AZ-
758 PM MST THU AUG 10 2006

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL
COUNTY...

AT 755 PM MST...RAINFALL HAD ENDED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL 
COUNTY. SOME FLOW IN NORMALLY DRY WASHES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE 
EVENING HOURS.

LAT...LON 3258 11126 3261 11084 3289 11085 3285 11129

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
222 PM MST THU AUG 10 2006

.SYNOPSIS...AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA RESIDES IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVING OVER THE WEST COAST WILL TURN THE FLOW MORE WESTERLY
BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY LOWER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
SEE LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY FLUCTUATIONS AND GENERALLY BE NEAR CLIMATIC
NORMALS FOR AUGUST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WELL...AS OF THIS WRITING...WE ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
WAITING GAME AS ATMOSPHERE IS RIPE TO EXPLODE IN STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAIN THREAT FROM THEM BEING HAIL AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN. MORNING TUCSON SOUNDING SHOWED VERY LITTLE WIND IN THE COLUMN
WHICH WILL RESULT IN SLOW MOVING STORMS. HAD ONE BIG STORM DEVELOP
NEAR SONOITA EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FOR NO STORM IT THAT
EXCITING. WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN PLACE AND AN
UNSTABLE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE YOU HAVE THE RECIPE FOR WET
MICROBURSTS THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL OF HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WITH
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1-2...SOME LOCALLY HIGHER. ADDITIONALLY TO ADD TO
THE RECIPE MIX WE HAVE A DEFORMATION ZONE OVERHEAD...AND AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN WESTERN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO MOVING TOWARD SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...WITH ARRIVAL TONIGHT. THE MORNING MODELS DID NOT
INITIALIZE THIS FEATURE VERY WELL AND THUS THE RESULTANT QPF/POP
FORECASTS ARE LOW. WITH CURRENT WET CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND
POTENTIAL FOR GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF HEAVY RAIN...WE ISSUE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA UNTIL 10 PM THIS
EVENING. WILL SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY ACTIVITY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY OCCURS
TONIGHT. WILL THUS KEEP STANDARD MONSOON FORECAST IN PLACE. STARTING
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK...WILL SEE THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF OVER THE WEST COAST DEEPEN A BIT AND INCREASE DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA AND KEEP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO AREAS FROM TUCSON EAST...ESPECIALLY STARTING LATE WEEKEND AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE DRYING OUT A
BIT DOESNT MEAN WILL BE HEATING UP...THANKS TO THE UPPER TROF. WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.
&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM MST
 FOR PUBLIC ZONES 29>35.
&&

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
101 PM MST THU AUG 10 2006

AZZ029>035-111400-
SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
101 PM MST THU AUG 10 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MST THIS EVENING...

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND LIGHT WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN VERY
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN. THE MAJOR THREAT
FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE WET MICROBURSTS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.00 TO 2.00 INCHES AND LOCALLY HIGHER...RESULTING
IN FLASH FLOODING. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL...LARGE HAIL
IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

A DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHWEST TODAY...INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
EVENING...INCREASING THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT SLIGHTLY FROM THE
WEST...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY ACTIVE WITH DAY TO  DAY
VARIABILITY OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.