Flash Flood Warning 98, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 240129
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
622 PM MST WED AUG 23 2006

AZC019-240300-
PIMA AZ-
622 PM MST WED AUG 23 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MST FOR EAST
CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

AT 622 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN 
AND SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA. 

WEATHER RADAR ESTIMATES BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.50 INCHES HAS FALLEN 
ALONG A LINE FROM THE INTERSECTION OF KINNEY AND GATES PASS ROAD 
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO VALENCIA AND MISSION ROAD. AN AUTOMATED RAIN 
GAGE NEAR VALENCIA AND THE SANTA CRUZ RIVER REPORTED 0.90 IN ONLY 30 
MINUTES. 
 
RAINFALL RUNOFF WILL QUICKLY FILL INTO NORMALLY DRY WASHES...ROADWAY 
DIPS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD NEVER ATTEMPT TO 
CROSS THROUGH RUNNING WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH.

LAT...LON 3201 11095 3218 11085 3231 11110 3223 11125

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 240159
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
659 PM MST WED AUG 23 2006

AZC019-240300-
PIMA AZ-
659 PM MST WED AUG 23 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MST FOR EAST
CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

ALTHOUGH WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT THE VERY HEAVY RAIN 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA AS WELL AS THE 
SANTA CATALINA MOUNTAINS HAS SUBSIDED...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RUNOFF 
WILL CONTINUE TO FILL WASHES AND ROADWAY DIPS WITH RUNNING WATER. 

WEATHER RADAR ESTIMATES BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.50 INCHES HAS FALLEN 
ALONG A LINE FROM THE INTERSECTION OF KINNEY AND GATES PASS ROAD 
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO THE INTERSECTION OF VALENCIA AND MISSION 
ROAD...THEN EAST TO THE KINO SPORTS COMPLEX. IN ADDITION...RADAR 
ESTIMATES THAT THE UPPER REACHES OF SABINO CREEK RECEIVED BETWEEN 
ONE AND TWO INCHES. 

AUTOMATED RAIN GAGES REPORTED THE FOLLOWING AMOUNTS...

VALENCIA AND THE SANTA CRUZ RIVER REPORTED 0.94 INCHES...
THE TUCSON DIVERSION CHANNEL AT THE AJO DETENTION BASIN REPORTED 
0.87 INCHES...
COUNTRY CLUB ROAD AT COLUMBIA REPORTED 0.59 INCHES. 
 
SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER WILL OCCUR IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND 
OTHER LOW LYING AREAS. NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY 
VEHICLES THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. THE WATER MAY BE TO DEEP TO ALLOW 
FOR SAFE PASSAGE.

LAT...LON 3203 11092 3218 11085 3224 11097 3232 11086
      3228 11076 3248 11067 3239 11091 3233 11087
      3224 11098 3231 11110 3223 11125

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 240252
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
751 PM MST WED AUG 23 2006

AZC019-240301-
PIMA AZ-
751 PM MST WED AUG 23 2006

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN WILL EXPIRE AT 800 PM
MST FOR EAST CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

ALTHOUGH RAINFALL RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE TO DRAIN INTO WASHES AND 
ROADWAY DIPS...AND PONDING OF WATER WILL STILL BE PRESENT IN POOR 
DRAINAGE AREAS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS...THE THREAT OF FLASH 
FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN 
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 800 PM MST. 

LAT...LON 3203 11092 3218 11085 3224 11097 3232 11086
      3228 11076 3248 11067 3239 11091 3233 11087
      3224 11098 3231 11110 3223 11125

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
235 PM MST WED AUG 23 2006

.SYNOPSIS...THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
PROVIDE SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH SEVERAL MORE DAYS OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEK.
&&

.DISCUSSION...SEVERAL INGREDIENTS WERE COMING TOGETHER FOR AN
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM EVENT STATEWIDE TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN DESERTS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINED IN PLACE
WITH PWATER VALUES AT PHX NEAR 2.0 INCHES AND 1.5 INCHES AT TUS.
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING PROVIDED ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING SO FAR
TODAY FOR THE AIRMASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION TO THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SUPPORTED THUNDERSTORM ENHANCEMENT AS A DEFORMATION AXIS EXTENDED
FROM THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF ARIZONA TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING WESTWARD TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING OR EVEN PAST
MIDNIGHT IN SOME SPOTS. THE MAIN THREAT BASED ON A WEAK STEERING
FLOW AND HIGH PWATER VALUES WILL BE FLASH FLOODING. HOWEVER...
ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO.
FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE...HAVE INCREASED GRIDDED POP VALUES MAINLY
OUT WEST FOR THIS EVENING. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO LATER FORECAST
PERIODS...SO REFER TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...BY LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY...THE GFS SHOWS
A PACIFIC LOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THIS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO A
CUTOFF LOW OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...AT LEAST
ACCORDING TO THE GFS. THERE IS A VAST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SO...WITH THE UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED WILL JUST KEEP LOW END OF
THE CHANCE CATEGORY GOING FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES WITH
ISOLATED TO NIL POPS OUT WEST. HIGHS FOR THE TUCSON AREA WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 90S THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH IS AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST. LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.
&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1207 PM MST WED AUG 23 2006

AZZ019-029>035-241400-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
1207 PM MST WED AUG 23 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE AIR MASS OVER
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA REMAINED MOIST AND WAS BECOMING MODERATELY
UNSTABLE IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE HEATING. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WERE RUNNING ABOUT 7 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY AT THE SAME TIME. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THIS DEVELOPMENT TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS MAKING THERE WAY INTO THE VALLEYS
LATER IN THE DAY. PERSONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ARE URGED TO
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF
WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE FLOW
PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.