Flash Flood Warning 105, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 242255
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
354 PM MST THU AUG 24 2006

AZC003-242303-
COCHISE AZ-
354 PM MST THU AUG 24 2006

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 400 PM MST FOR SOUTHWESTERN
COCHISE COUNTY...

HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER SOUTHWEST COCHISE COUNTY. AS A 
RESULT...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 400 PM 
MST.

NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES THROUGH FLOODED
AREAS. THE WATER MAY BE TO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR SAFE PASSAGE.

LAT...LON 3165 11045 3135 11044 3133 10988 3148 11000
      3159 11027

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
SCHAFFNER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
235 PM MST THU AUG 24 2006

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT AS A MOIST FLOW PREVAILS OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE THIS WEEKEND AS A GREAT
BASIN DISTURBANCE SPREADS DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF SE AZ AT THIS TIME. THE
EXCEPTION WAS SE PINAL/WRN AND CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTIES WHERE EARLIER
CONVECTION HAS STABILIZED THAT AREA. OUTFLOW FROM MORNING SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM LA PAZ COUNTY SEWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL
PIMA COUNTY-SOUTH OF TUCSON...AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME.

GULF CA SURGE ONGOING IN COMBINATION WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND
VERY SLOW CELL MOVEMENTS PROMPTED ISSUANCE OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNTIL 25/05Z. CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT LOW THAT
ZONES 29/30/33 MAY EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THESE ZONES
WERE INCLUDED WITH EXPECTATION THAT HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR LATER
IN THIS WATCH PERIOD. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BE MORE WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE THAN
GOING FORECAST INDICATES. WILL DEFER SUBSEQUENT ADJUSTMENTS TO
EVENING SHIFT FOR ADDITIONAL FORECAST REFINEMENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND FRI MORNING PERIOD.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DECREASE ESPECIALLY WRN SECTIONS FRI
AND DOWNWARD TREND TO CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AS TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE GREAT BASIN REGION. MOISTURE PROGGED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SLY FLOW RETURNS IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED TO
BE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. PERHAPS SOME DRYING ACROSS FAR WRN
SECTIONS AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK AS SWLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS IN
RESPONSE TO TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. HOWEVER BULK OF FORECAST
AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE/SLY FLOW REGIME.
DAYTIME MAX TEMPS THIS FORECAST PERIOD EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE AUG.

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH SE AZ ZONES
     AZZ019-029>035 UNTIL 10 PM MST TONIGHT.

&&

BF

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED TYPO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
545 AM MST THU AUG 24 2006

AZZ019-029-031>035-251400-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN
VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
545 AM MST THU AUG 24 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND EXTENDING ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO WILL ALLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE TO
PULL MOISTURE INTO ARIZONA TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MY FORECAST AREA
FROM SOUTHWEST PINAL COUNTY AND EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST PIMA
COUNTY...INCLUDING THE TUCSON AREA. THESE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG A BOUNDARY BETWEEN DRY AIR OVER NORTHERN BAJA AND NORTHWEST
SONORA...AND VERY MOIST AIR OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA. EVEN
THOUGH ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY...SOME OF
THE STORMS WILL LIKELY APPROACH OR EXCEED SEVERE LEVELS WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE RATHER WEAK TODAY...SO THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE FLOW
PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...BUT WITH
LESS ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ030-251400-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-
545 AM MST THU AUG 24 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A RISE ON THE GILA RIVER AT
DUNCAN. FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CONCERNING THE WATCH REFER TO THE
LATEST ISSUANCE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNDER THE HEADER PHXFFATWC
OR REFER TO OUR WEB PAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND EXTENDING ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO WILL ALLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE TO
PULL MOISTURE INTO ARIZONA TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MY FORECAST AREA
FROM SOUTHWEST PINAL COUNTY AND EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST PIMA
COUNTY...INCLUDING THE TUCSON AREA. THESE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG A BOUNDARY BETWEEN DRY AIR OVER NORTHERN BAJA AND NORTHWEST
SONORA...AND VERY MOIST AIR OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA. EVEN
THOUGH ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY...SOME OF
THE STORMS WILL LIKELY APPROACH OR EXCEED SEVERE LEVELS WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE RATHER WEAK TODAY...SO THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE FLOW
PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...BUT WITH
LESS ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.