Flash Flood Warning 96, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 161854
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1151 AM MST WED AUG 16 2006

AZC003-162015-
COCHISE AZ-
1151 AM MST WED AUG 16 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM MST FOR
NORTHERN COCHISE COUNTY...

AT 1144 AM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL JUST TO THE EAST OF 
SAINT DAVID.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SIBYL ROAD 
NEAR SAINT DAVID AND HIGHWAY 186 BETWEEN WILLCOX AND CHIRICAHUA 
NATIONAL MONUMENT.

NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES THROUGH FLOODED
AREAS. THE WATER MAY BE TO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR SAFE PASSAGE.

LAT...LON 3226 10971 3190 11025 3183 11016 3208 10925

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
SCHAFFNER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
910 AM MST WED AUG 16 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA FOR CONTINUED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KIWA WSR-88D DETECTED SCATTERED MOSTLY 30-55 DBZ
ECHOES ACROSS ERN PIMA AND SW GRAHAM COUNTIES VALID 1605Z. OTHER
ISOLATED MOSTLY LESS THAN 40 DBZ ECHOES WERE OVER SE PINAL COUNTY.
CELL MOVEMENT WAS NEARLY STATIONARY. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
CLOUD TOPS GRADUALLY COOLING DURING THE PAST 1-2 HOURS OVER ERN PIMA
COUNTY AS WELL AS OVER COCHISE COUNTY/EXTREME NE SONORA. CLUSTER OF
STRONG/VERY SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE IN ADVANCE OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NWD OVER CENTRAL SONORA. RADAR DERIVED RAIN
RATES AS WELL AS RAIN GAGE REPORTS OF 1-1.25 INCHES PER HOUR HAVE
OCCURRED OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA PROMPTING
ISSUANCE OF FLASH FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 17Z. 16/12Z KTUS SOUNDING
DEPICTED A VERY MOIST REGIME WITH PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.70 INCHES.
FAIRLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUE NEAR MINUS 6 AND
UNMODIFIED SBCAPE OF 2617 J/KG. VERY LIGHT MID-LEVEL FLOW THUS
EXPECTATION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY. 16/12Z
UPPER AIR PLOTS INDICATED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NW LOUISIANA
AND TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. GENERALLY VERY LIGHT SWLY FLOW
PREVAILED OVER SRN AZ.

BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR TRENDS...APPEARS THAT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE DURING THE NEXT 2-3
HOURS...AT LEAST...ACROSS ERN PIMA/SE PINAL/SW GRAHAM/COCHISE
COUNTIES AS SONORAN SHORTWAVE CONTINUES NWD MIGRATION. WILL UPDATE
ZONE FORECAST FORTHWITH TO REFLECT INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THESE AREAS.

OTHERWISE...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF REFLECTING GRADUAL DRYING
TREND PARTICULARLY DURING THE THUR-FRI PERIOD. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS THAT WRN SECTIONS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE DECREASED
PRECIP CHANCES...HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD STILL REMAIN OVER
ERN SECTIONS SUFFICIENT FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON/
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. PERHAPS A MORE PRONOUNCED UPSWING IN
ACTIVITY EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO INFLUENCE OF SERIES OF INVERTED
TROUGHS PROGGED VIA GFS. WILL ADDRESS EXTENDED FORECAST SCENARIO
FURTHER IN AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

BF

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON