Flash Flood Warning 95, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 161803
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1058 AM MST WED AUG 16 2006

AZC019-161830-
PIMA AZ-
1058 AM MST WED AUG 16 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM MST FOR
EASTERN PIMA COUNTY...

AT 1050 AM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER 
THE REDINGTON PASS AREA.

WATER IS FLOWING SEVERAL FEET IN SEVERAL AREA WASHES INCLUDING THE 
TANQUE VERDE...ALAMO WASH...AND RILLITO CREEK. WATER IS HOWEVER WELL 
WITHIN ITS BANKS.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO TUCSON...ORO 
VALLEY AND MARANA.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE 
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS 
SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3250 11150 3173 11126 3175 11053 3249 11052

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
SCHAFFNER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
910 AM MST WED AUG 16 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA FOR CONTINUED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KIWA WSR-88D DETECTED SCATTERED MOSTLY 30-55 DBZ
ECHOES ACROSS ERN PIMA AND SW GRAHAM COUNTIES VALID 1605Z. OTHER
ISOLATED MOSTLY LESS THAN 40 DBZ ECHOES WERE OVER SE PINAL COUNTY.
CELL MOVEMENT WAS NEARLY STATIONARY. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
CLOUD TOPS GRADUALLY COOLING DURING THE PAST 1-2 HOURS OVER ERN PIMA
COUNTY AS WELL AS OVER COCHISE COUNTY/EXTREME NE SONORA. CLUSTER OF
STRONG/VERY SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE IN ADVANCE OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NWD OVER CENTRAL SONORA. RADAR DERIVED RAIN
RATES AS WELL AS RAIN GAGE REPORTS OF 1-1.25 INCHES PER HOUR HAVE
OCCURRED OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA PROMPTING
ISSUANCE OF FLASH FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 17Z. 16/12Z KTUS SOUNDING
DEPICTED A VERY MOIST REGIME WITH PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.70 INCHES.
FAIRLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUE NEAR MINUS 6 AND
UNMODIFIED SBCAPE OF 2617 J/KG. VERY LIGHT MID-LEVEL FLOW THUS
EXPECTATION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY. 16/12Z
UPPER AIR PLOTS INDICATED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NW LOUISIANA
AND TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW. GENERALLY VERY LIGHT SWLY FLOW
PREVAILED OVER SRN AZ.

BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR TRENDS...APPEARS THAT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE DURING THE NEXT 2-3
HOURS...AT LEAST...ACROSS ERN PIMA/SE PINAL/SW GRAHAM/COCHISE
COUNTIES AS SONORAN SHORTWAVE CONTINUES NWD MIGRATION. WILL UPDATE
ZONE FORECAST FORTHWITH TO REFLECT INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THESE AREAS.

OTHERWISE...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF REFLECTING GRADUAL DRYING
TREND PARTICULARLY DURING THE THUR-FRI PERIOD. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS THAT WRN SECTIONS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE DECREASED
PRECIP CHANCES...HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD STILL REMAIN OVER
ERN SECTIONS SUFFICIENT FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON/
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. PERHAPS A MORE PRONOUNCED UPSWING IN
ACTIVITY EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO INFLUENCE OF SERIES OF INVERTED
TROUGHS PROGGED VIA GFS. WILL ADDRESS EXTENDED FORECAST SCENARIO
FURTHER IN AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

BF

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON