Flash Flood Warning 66, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 080120
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
618 PM MST MON AUG 7 2006

AZC003-009-080200-
GRAHAM AZ-COCHISE AZ-
618 PM MST MON AUG 7 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM MST FOR
NORTHWESTERN COCHISE AND WESTERN GRAHAM COUNTIES...

AT 615 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL 
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY AND WESTERN GRAHAM COUNTY. RADAR 
ESTIMATES OF BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN NEAR MULESHOE 
RANCH PRESERVE IN NORTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY...AS WELL AS ALONG THE 
WESTERN SECTIONS OF ASH CREEK AND HIGH CREEK ROADS IN WESTERN GRAHAM 
COUNTY. 

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MULESHOE 
RANCH PRESERVE...KLONDYKE...CALVA AND BYLAS.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

LAT...LON 3204 11043 3219 11003 3261 10988 3328 11007
      3326 11040

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
ZELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
130 PM MST MON AUG 7 2006

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL BUILD
WESTWARD...WITH AN EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNING TO
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE IS UP FOR MOST OF THE AREA AGAIN...WITH 12Z
KTUS SOUNDING BACK UP OVER 1.5 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER. SURFACE
DEWPTS IN THE 60S...GENERALLY UP 5 TO 10 DEG OVER 24 HRS AGO. NOT
MUCH SHEAR AND WEAK FLOW...BUT SHOULD NO PROBLEMS REACHING A
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE AROUND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK DEFORMATION AREA HELPING TO ENHANCE A FEW STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SANTA CRUZ...EASTERN PIMA AND COCHISE
COUNTIES...BUT NOT MUCH SHEAR AT ALL...AND MID LEVELS A TOUCH WARM.
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT HEAVY RAIN IS
PROBABLY THE MAIN CONCERN.

THE MAJOR FEATURES ARE SHIFTING A BIT WITH THE LOW NEAR THE
CALIFORNIA COAST LIFTING NORTHEAST AND THE HIGH NEAR SOUTHEAST
STATES SPREADING WEST AND RECONSOLIDATING TO A MORE SEASONAL
POSITION OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. ULTIMATELY THIS WILL REINFORCE AN
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BRING A MORE DEPENDABLE SOURCE OF
MOISTURE TO THE AREA. AN EASTERLY LOW THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD
SHIFT WEST WITH THE PATTERN...PROBABLY ENHANCING OUR CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.
&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1119 AM MST MON AUG 7 2006

AZZ019-029-030-032>035-080700-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
1119 AM MST MON AUG 7 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AS A RESULT OF A MOISTURE SURGE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO LAST NIGHT...AN
UPSWING IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME TENDENCY FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG A MID LEVEL MOISTURE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN WHITE MOUNTAINS INTO WESTERN COCHISE
AND EASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD. HOWEVER DUE TO THEIR SLOW MOVEMENT AND
THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE NOW IN PLACE...A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME ALONG WITH BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 10
PM...BUT A FEW COULD LINGER OR REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE WILL BE A DAILY CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE WHICH MEANS THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE FROM HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PYTLAK