Flash Flood Warning 65, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 080052
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
550 PM MST MON AUG 7 2006

AZC023-080215-
SANTA CRUZ AZ-
550 PM MST MON AUG 7 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM MST FOR 
CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...INCLUDING NOGALES...

FLASH FLOODING WAS REPORTED IN NOGALES FROM HEAVY RAINFALL THAT 
MOVED THROUGH THE TOWN EARLY THIS EVENING. NO ADDITIONAL INFORMATION 
HAS BEEN RECEIVED ON THE FLOODING CAUSED BY A RETENTION BASIN BEING 
BREACHED NEAR INTERSTATE 19. ACCORDING TO NOGALES LAW ENFORCEMENT 
OFFICIALS...EVACUATIONS WERE IN PROGRESS IN THE MI CASA TRAILER PARK 
AND VIA VERDE SUBDIVISION AS OF 520 PM MST. 

AT 545 PM MST...TUCSON RADAR SHOWED A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH 
OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THAT COULD MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF NOGALES 
BY 630 PM MST. A OTHER AREAS RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WERE 
NORTHWEST OF PATAGONIA AND WEST OF SONOITA. 

REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER 
COVERS THE ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR 
CAR TO CROSS SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3133 11106 3134 11075 3159 11075 3159 11107

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
130 PM MST MON AUG 7 2006

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL BUILD
WESTWARD...WITH AN EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNING TO
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. EXPECT A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE IS UP FOR MOST OF THE AREA AGAIN...WITH 12Z
KTUS SOUNDING BACK UP OVER 1.5 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER. SURFACE
DEWPTS IN THE 60S...GENERALLY UP 5 TO 10 DEG OVER 24 HRS AGO. NOT
MUCH SHEAR AND WEAK FLOW...BUT SHOULD NO PROBLEMS REACHING A
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE AROUND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK DEFORMATION AREA HELPING TO ENHANCE A FEW STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SANTA CRUZ...EASTERN PIMA AND COCHISE
COUNTIES...BUT NOT MUCH SHEAR AT ALL...AND MID LEVELS A TOUCH WARM.
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT HEAVY RAIN IS
PROBABLY THE MAIN CONCERN.

THE MAJOR FEATURES ARE SHIFTING A BIT WITH THE LOW NEAR THE
CALIFORNIA COAST LIFTING NORTHEAST AND THE HIGH NEAR SOUTHEAST
STATES SPREADING WEST AND RECONSOLIDATING TO A MORE SEASONAL
POSITION OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. ULTIMATELY THIS WILL REINFORCE AN
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BRING A MORE DEPENDABLE SOURCE OF
MOISTURE TO THE AREA. AN EASTERLY LOW THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD
SHIFT WEST WITH THE PATTERN...PROBABLY ENHANCING OUR CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.
&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1119 AM MST MON AUG 7 2006

AZZ019-029-030-032>035-080700-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
1119 AM MST MON AUG 7 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AS A RESULT OF A MOISTURE SURGE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO LAST NIGHT...AN
UPSWING IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME TENDENCY FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG A MID LEVEL MOISTURE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN WHITE MOUNTAINS INTO WESTERN COCHISE
AND EASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD. HOWEVER DUE TO THEIR SLOW MOVEMENT AND
THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE NOW IN PLACE...A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME ALONG WITH BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 10
PM...BUT A FEW COULD LINGER OR REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE WILL BE A DAILY CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE WHICH MEANS THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE FROM HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PYTLAK