Flash Flood Warning 52, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KTWC 311028
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
326 AM MST MON JUL 31 2006

AZC019-311115-
PIMA AZ-
326 AM MST MON JUL 31 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 AM MST FOR EAST
CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

AT 319 AM MST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE HEAVY RAIN 
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN PIMA COUNTY. FLASH FLOODING 
IS LIKELY OCCURRING IN SEVERAL SPOTS ON THE EAST SIDE OF 
TUCSON...ESPECIALLY IN THE TANQUE VERDE AREA WHERE UP TO TWO AND A 
HALF INCHES FELL EARLIER THIS MORNING. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN IN 
RINCON CREEK WHICH DRAINS INTO THE PANTANO WASH. OVER AN INCH AND A 
HALF FELL IN THIS AREA AND THE RIVER GAGE INDICATED A FIVE AND A 
HALF FOOT RISE IN THE WATER. THIS WALL OF WATER WILL MOVE ACROSS OLD 
SPANISH TRAIL ROAD AND THEN CONTINUE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE PANTANO 
WASH WHICH HAS SEVERAL LOW WATER CROSSINGS.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES THROUGH FLOODED 
AREAS. THE WATER MAY BE TO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR SAFE PASSAGE.

LAT...LON 3208 11068 3210 11055 3233 11064 3231 11078

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
820 PM MST SUN JUL 30 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WILL RESULT IN MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. FLASH FLOODING WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
A CONCERN TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS STORMS TRACK SOUTH FROM
THE RIM COUNTRY THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THE AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT BY WEDNESDAY...WITH A RETURN TO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM FORECAST TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO START TO INCREASE TO MORE
SEASONABLE VALUES.
&&

.DISCUSSION...GENERALLY QUIETER OUT THERE THAN COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO...HOWEVER...WHERE THERE IS ACTIVITY IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO 24
HOURS AGO. ACTIVITY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER HAS DIED DOWN
CONSIDERABLY...GIVEN THAT THERE WAS A GOOD DEAL OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DOWN THERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONLY REAL
ACTIVITY ON RADAR NOW WITHIN THE CWA IS OVER CENTRAL PIMA
COUNTY...JUST SOUTHEAST OF SANTA ROSA...AND EVEN THAT IS BEGINNING
TO DIMINISH. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CWA ARE ALL LINGERING IN THE MID
60S...WITH TEMPERATURES SPLIT...TUS AND SAD IN THE UPPER
70S...DUG...OLS AND FHU IN THE LOWER 70S. BOTH IR SATELLITE AND
RADAR MOSAIC SHOW ACTIVITY BUILDING UP OFF THE RIM AND HEADING
SOUTHWARD...AGAIN...NEARLY IDENTICAL TO 24 HOURS AGO. THAT
SAID...WILL LIKELY SEE AN UPSWING IN ACTIVITY FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT FOR NOW...A RELATIVELY QUIET EVENING.

CURRENT MODELS REALLY DO NOT SHOW A BREAK IN THIS PATTERN UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW OVER NEW MEXICO IS
FINALLY PUSHED EASTWARD. AS ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE DEPARTS...THAT
WILL NOT BE THE END OF THE RAINFALL. INSTEAD...ENOUGH MOISTURE
REMAINS TO JUST BRING US BACK TO THE STANDARD MONSOON FORECAST OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS....WITH BEST
CHANCES...AND BEST MOISTURE...IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
THIS TYPE OF ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

NOT EXPECTING TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
AT KTUS.
&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH PUBLIC ZONES
 AZZ019-029-030-031-033-035 UNTIL 900 AM MST MONDAY MORNING.
&&

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

SMR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
153 PM MST SUN JUL 30 2006

AZZ019-029-030-032>035-311600-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
153 PM MST SUN JUL 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 900 AM MST MONDAY MORNING...

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAD RESULTED IN
SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS AND RUNNING WATER IN NORMALLY DRY
WASHES AND RIVERS. THE AIR MASS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA REMAINED
VERY MOIST. ANY RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS
AIR MASS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL DIMINISH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ031-311600-
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-
153 PM MST SUN JUL 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

HE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FAR WESTERN PIMA COUNTY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE NOT MANAGED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS FAR WESTERN PIMA COUNTY THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AREA TONIGHT...THE THREAT
OF WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING WILL BE MINIMAL. THUS...THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR WESTERN PIMA COUNTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL DIMINISH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.