Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2006

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Tulsa, OK

March 9, 2006Madison County, Arkansas

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Mar 9, 2006, 2:04 PM CST for Madison County, Arkansas. It was in force for 56 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 9, 2006, 2:04 PM CST (20:04 UTC)
Expired: Mar 9, 2006, 3:00 PM CST
In force: 56 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Madison County, AR

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 100 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:07 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Mar 9, 12:30 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 93 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1055 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 72 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -11 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 117 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS54 KTSA 092004
SVRTSA
ARC087-092100-
/O.NEW.KTSA.SV.W.0040.060309T2004Z-060309T2100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
204 PM CST THU MAR 9 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  MADISON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 300 PM CST

* AT 202 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND
  WINDS TO 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES WEST OF SAINT
  PAUL...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...WESLEY...SAINT
  PAUL...JAPTON...HINDSVILLE...CLIFTY...HUNTSVILLE...PETTIGREW...
  WITTER...AURORA...FORUM AND BOSTON.

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3623 9389 3578 9396 3577 9353 3630 9371

$$

3 follow-up statements

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 092019
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
219 PM CST THU MAR 9 2006

ARC087-092100-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-060309T2100Z/
MADISON AR-
219 PM CST THU MAR 9 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 300 PM CST FOR
MADISON COUNTY...

AT 216 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED PENNY SIZE HAIL
AND WINDS TO 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
JAPTON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...JAPTON...
HINDSVILLE...DUTTON...PETTIGREW...WITTER...HUNTSVILLE...AURORA...
CLIFTY...HARMONY...BOSTON...FORUM...ALABAM...RED STAR...ROCKHOUSE...
WEATHERS...MARBLE AND KINGSTON.

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3630 9384 3578 9396 3577 9353 3606 9344
      3629 9366

$$

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 092039
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
240 PM CST THU MAR 9 2006

ARC047-092100-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0039.000000T0000Z-060309T2100Z/
FRANKLIN AR-
240 PM CST THU MAR 9 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 300 PM CST FOR
FRANKLIN COUNTY...

AT 236 PM CST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES EAST OF
WATALULA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...MOUNTAIN TOP AND
TAFT.

STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3569 9397 3544 9386 3543 9369 3577 9369
      3576 9391

$$

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 092055
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
256 PM CST THU MAR 9 2006

ARC087-092106-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-060309T2100Z/
MADISON AR-
256 PM CST THU MAR 9 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MADISON COUNTY EXPIRES AT 300
PM CST...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3629 9384 3578 9396 3577 9353 3606 9344
      3629 9366

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Mar 9, 1:56 PM CST, 8 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 9, 1:56 PM CST, 8 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
156 PM CST THU MAR 9 2006

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
CAP INDEX HAS SHOWN CONTINUED EROSION INTO WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...AND HAS REMAINED A BIT STRONG INTO FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.  THIS APPEARS TO SUPPORT RECENT RADAR TRENDS WITH THE
NORTHERN STORMS WEAKENING WHEN COMPARED TO EARLIER TRENDS...HOWEVER
THEY REMAIN SEVERE AS PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE EASILY
GENERATED.

FURTHER SOUTH INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...THE WEAKENED CAP APPEARS
TO ALSO HAVE ALLOWED AN INCREASING WIND POTENTIAL WITH THE STORMS.
EXPERIMENTAL WIND POTENTIAL ANALYSIS PUTS HIGH VALUES IN PROXIMITY
OF THESE STORMS...AND ANY DOWNWARD MOMENTUM WILL BE SUCCESSFUL IN
GENERATING STRONG WINDS.  WARNINGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR BOTH A
WIND AND HAIL POTENTIAL.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 1
LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 1

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 9, 12:50 PM CST, 1 hour 14 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1250 PM CST THU MAR 9 2006

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-101100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1250 PM CST THU MAR 9 2006

...LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EAST OF A SILOAM SPRINGS TO MCALESTER LINE.
	ONSET...ONGOING...ENDING BY MID EVENING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND WILL
LIKELY EXPAND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LARGE
HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH UP TO GOLFBALL
SIZE LIKELY. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO WEAKEN SOON AFTER
SUNSET...WITH AN ASSOCIATED DECREASE IN THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RETURN BY FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM BACK INTO THE 70S WHILE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
INCREASE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN BY THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY
REMAINS NEAR THE REGION AND AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDER APPEAR TO BE OVER FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 9, 12:52 PM CST, 1 hour 12 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1252 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     HAIL             2 NE ENTERPRISE         35.25N 95.35W
03/09/2006  E1.00 INCH       HASKELL            OK   PUBLIC

            MID WAY BETWEEN ENTERPRISE AND WHITEFIELD

&&

MEB

Local storm report, Mar 9, 1:11 PM CST, 53 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
111 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 PM     HAIL             3 E CANADIAN            35.18N 95.60W
03/09/2006  E0.75 INCH       PITTSBURG          OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL COVERED THE GROUND

&&

MEB

Local storm report, Mar 9, 1:14 PM CST, 50 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
114 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 PM     HAIL             TAMAHA                  35.40N 94.98W
03/09/2006  E0.75 INCH       HASKELL            OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            COVERING THE GROUND

&&

MEB

Local storm report, Mar 9, 1:21 PM CST, 43 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
121 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0119 PM     HAIL             SALLISAW                35.46N 94.79W
03/09/2006  E0.75 INCH       SEQUOYAH           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            COVERING THE GROUND IN SALLISAW

&&

MEB

Local storm report, Mar 9, 1:30 PM CST, 34 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
130 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0128 PM     HAIL             1 SE ROLAND             35.41N 94.50W
03/09/2006  E0.75 INCH       SEQUOYAH           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            3/4 INCH HAIL REPORTED FROM ROLAND TO NEAR MOFFETT

&&

MEB

Local storm report, Mar 9, 1:38 PM CST, 26 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
138 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0137 PM     HAIL             ROLAND                  35.42N 94.51W
03/09/2006  E1.00 INCH       SEQUOYAH           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            JUST NORTH OF ROLAND

&&

MEB

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 8, 8:39 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Crawford, Sebastian	51 min
Mar 8, 9:05 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Franklin	39 min
Mar 9, 1:52 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Crawford, Sebastian, Washington	73 min
Mar 9, 2:32 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Franklin	58 min
Mar 9, 4:34 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Crawford, Sebastian	34 min
Mar 9, 4:56 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Franklin	31 min
Mar 9, 1:30 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Crawford	60 min
Mar 9, 1:50 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Washington	55 min
Mar 9, 1:51 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Sebastian	36 min
Mar 9, 2:01 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Franklin	49 min
Mar 9, 2:35 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Carroll	30 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arkansas, 2006 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.