Severe Thunderstorm Warning 156, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
349 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS LARGE SCALE
LIFT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE.
THESE STORMS ARE ELEVATED...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELL STRUCTURE WITH A HAIL THREAT.  THE STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.  SEVERE WEATHER WITH AN EMPHASIS ON HAIL
WILL BE LIKEKLY WITH THE STORMS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ064-OKZ065-
     OKZ066-OKZ067.

AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
145 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
144 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

...TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK EXPECTED LATE TODAY
AND EARLY TONIGHT...

...TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES IN PLACE FOR MUCH
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
	ONSET...AFTER 4PM.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
		AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING...ACTIVITY INCREASING AFTER 3PM.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...AFTER 3PM.

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A DRY LINE
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT.  THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WIND PROFILES ALOFT FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELL STORMS.  BOTH MOISTURE AND WIND FIELDS WILL FURTHER
IMPROVE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHWEST AND
WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS TONIGHT TO SUPPORT TORNADOES...WITH A RISK
OF STRONG TORNADOES.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO RISK...THE MOST INTENSE SUPERCELLS WILL
PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS TO SOFTBALL SIZE AND STORM WIND
GUSTS TO 90 MPH.

BEHIND THE DRY LINE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE
WITH A RISK THAT ANY FIRES THAT OCCUR COULD SPREAD QUICKLY OUT OF
CENTRAL.  SEE THE RED FLAG WARNING FROM THIS OFFICE FOR DETAILS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD MAKE FINAL CHECKS ON
COMMUNICATIONS EQUIPMENT...ENSURE EMERGENCY POWER SYSTEMS ARE
READY AND POSITIONS SPOTTERS EARLY AS STORM MOTIONS WILL BE
RAPID.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD.  THERE MAY BE SOME
HAIL RISK WITH THESE STORMS.  THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT
WILL ALSO CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
MONITOR THUNDERSTORM AND FIRE WEATHER FORECASTS FOR FRIDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1223 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1217 PM     HAIL             KIBLER                  35.43N 94.23W
04/06/2006  E0.75 INCH       CRAWFORD           AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1240 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1217 PM     HAIL             POCOLA                  35.23N 94.48W
04/06/2006  E1.00 INCH       LE FLORE           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

1231 PM     HAIL             FORT SMITH              35.39N 94.40W
04/06/2006  E1.00 INCH       SEBASTIAN          AR   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

JDS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1244 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

ARZ011-061800-
MADISON AR-
1244 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 100 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     MADISON

AT 1244 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES SOUTH OF PETTIGREW...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...RED STAR...WEATHERS...
PETTIGREW AND BOSTON.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1259 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

OKZ053-061815-
CHOCTAW OK-
1259 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 115 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CHOCTAW

AT 1259 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5
MILES EAST OF SPENCERVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
115 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

ARZ020-061830-
FRANKLIN AR-
115 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 130 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     FRANKLIN

AT 115 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
WEST OF ALTUS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ALIX...OZARK...MEG...DENNING...
ALTUS...WATALULA...MOUNTAIN TOP AND WIEDERKEHR VILLAGE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
342 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

OKZ049-075-076-062115-
LATIMER OK-LE FLORE OK-PUSHMATAHA OK-
342 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 415 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     LE FLORE...LATIMER AND PUSHMATAHA

AT 342 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
TUSKAHOMA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...YANUSH...BENGAL...WHITESBORO
...TALIHINA...HODGEN...SUMMERFI  ELD...HEAVENER...FANSHAWE...
WISTER...TUSKAHOMA...KIAMICHI AND ALBION.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.