Red Flag Warning 20, NWS Tulsa, OK

Adair County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Choctaw County, OK, Craig County, OK, Creek County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Haskell County, OK, Latimer County, OK, Mayes County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Okfuskee County, OK, Okmulgee County, OK, Ottawa County, OK, Pawnee County, OK, Pittsburg County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Tulsa County, OK, Wagoner County, OK, Washington County, OK

000 
WWUS84 KTSA 070103
RFWTSA

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
803 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

OKZ049-053>076-070300-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FW.W.0020.000000T0000Z-060407T0300Z/
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-
TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-
CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-
LATIMER-LE FLORE-
803 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN OKLAHOMA...
PUSHMATAHA...CHOCTAW...OSAGE...WASHINGTON...NOWATA...CRAIG...
OTTAWA...PAWNEE...TULSA...ROGERS...MAYES...DELAWARE...CREEK...
OKFUSKEE...OKMULGEE...WAGONER...CHEROKEE...ADAIR...MUSKOGEE...
MCINTOSH...SEQUOYAH...PITTSBURG...HASKELL...LATIMER...LE FLORE.

EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST TRHOUGH 
THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...
WEST OF A DRY LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR BARTLESVILLE TO OKEMAH. 
WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 45 MPH COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND 
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RESULT IN EXTREME FIRE DANGER.

FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 10 PM 
AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES RISE AND TEMPERATURES FALL. 


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
255 AM CDT THU APR 6 2006

.DISCUSSION...
BUSY DAY SHAPING UP FOR THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT TO UNFOLD LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY SHOWS COMPLEX UPPER LOW OVER THE WRN
U.S...WITH PRIMARY CIRCULATION ACROSS SRN ID AND AN ADDITIONAL SPIN
FARTHER S OVER AZ. SFC LOW ANALYZED OVER WRN NE...WITH DRYLINE
ARCING SE INTO CNTRL KS THEN SW INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. FORECAST AREA
IS UNDER ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH A FEW SHOWERS NOTED
ALONG THE RED RIVER.

INITIAL CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...CLOSEST TO THE WARM FRONT. SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER CIRCULATION WILL KICK INTO WRN KS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH COLD
FRONT/DRYLINE COMBINATION SURGING EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF ERN OK BY
MID-AFTERNOON. THERMAL CAP SHOULD HOLD CONVECTION IN CHECK FOR MUCH
OF TODAY...WITH DRYLINE CONVECTION FIRING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 75 SOMETIME BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LATE
AFTERNOON CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG WITH 80-90KT SWLY 500MB JET AND SLY
50KT 850 MB FLOW...SO EXPECT STORMS TO RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE AND
QUICKLY PUSH INTO WRN AR. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH
TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT SHOULD END OVER WRN AR BY MIDNIGHT.

AFTER A LOOK AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CONSIDERING THE VERY MILD
START TO THE DAY...HAVE DECIDED TO GO SEVERE DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE
FOR HIGHS. DESPITE IN THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...RED FLAG
CRITERIA WILL BE MET FOR MUCH OF ERN OK AND WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG
WARNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WILL ALSO GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY
FOR MUCH OF NE OK...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 40 MPH POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.

MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A PRIMARY CIRCULATION BY
FRIDAY...WITH SYSTEM DIPPING INTO NE OK LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW
CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD INTO FRIDAY EVENING FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
PLEASANTLY COOL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND A GRADUAL WARMUP FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   84  53  74  43 /  30  10  30  20
FSM   84  53  81  47 /  50  30  20  20
MLC   84  52  78  41 /  30  10  10  10
BVO   84  45  73  41 /  30  10  30  20
FYV   80  50  74  38 /  50  40  30  20
BYV   79  52  74  39 /  50  70  30  20
MKO   79  50  77  42 /  30  20  20  20
MIO   83  49  75  39 /  50  20  30  20
F10   81  52  75  41 /  30  10  20  10
HHW   84  53  79  46 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ049-
     OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-
     OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067.

AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 7
LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
816 PM CDT WED APR 5 2006

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-061000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
815 PM CDT WED APR 5 2006

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING..

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...LIMITED...SPREADINDEX=37.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES ACTIVE ACROSS THE AREA. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THERE MAY BE A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA BEFORE
MID-MORNING THURSDAY.

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS A
DRY LINE PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA ALONG THE DRY LINE AND RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE AS
THEY TREK TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE AIRMASS ACROSS
THE AREA WILL BE RATHER UNSTABLE WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG
AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES AROUND -5. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS.  TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE SUPERCELLS.
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY MIDNIGHT.

ADDITIONALLY...LOCATIONS WEST OF THE ADVANCING DRYLINE MAY EXPERIENCE
A PERIOD OF DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...PRIMARILY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR SPOTTER ACTIVATION AND CHECK ALL
COMMUNICATION CHANNELS FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY...CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FIRE WEATHER
ACTIVITIES FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVE CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.