Tornado Warning 26, NWS Topeka, KS

000 
WWUS53 KTOP 212240
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
539 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006

KSC029-143-212315-
/O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0026.000000T0000Z-060921T2315Z/
CLOUD-OTTAWA-
539 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN OTTAWA AND WESTERN CLOUD COUNTIES...

AT 538 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 
MILES SOUTHWEST OF GLASCO...OR ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF 
CONCORDIA...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GLASCO AND JAMESTOWN.

IF A TORNADO APPROACHES...GO TO A BASEMENT OR SEEK SHELTER IN A
HALLWAY OR CLOSET ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING. USE BLANKETS
OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR HEAD AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3964 9792 3919 9792 3923 9780 3964 9771

$$

000 
WWUS53 KTOP 212253
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
552 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006

KSC143-212302-
/O.CAN.KTOP.TO.W.0026.000000T0000Z-060921T2315Z/
OTTAWA-
552 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN OTTAWA COUNTY HAS BEEN 
CANCELLED...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE COUNTY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3964 9792 3931 9792 3930 9779 3964 9771

$$

KSC029-212315-
/O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0026.000000T0000Z-060921T2315Z/
CLOUD-
552 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT FOR WESTERN
CLOUD COUNTY...

AT 551 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO.  THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GLASCO...OR ABOUT 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CONCORDIA...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JAMESTOWN...
RURAL AREAS OF WESTERN CLOUD COUNTY.

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING. AS A
LAST RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW SPOT AND COVER
YOUR HEAD.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3964 9792 3931 9792 3930 9779 3964 9771

$$

000 
WWUS53 KTOP 212302
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
601 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006

KSC029-212315-
/O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0026.000000T0000Z-060921T2315Z/
CLOUD-
601 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT FOR WESTERN
CLOUD COUNTY...

AT 557 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO.  THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GLASCO...OR ABOUT 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CONCORDIA...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JAMESTOWN.

AT 555 PM CDT...A TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD WITH THIS 
STORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF SIMPSON IN MITCHELL COUNTY.

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING. AS A
LAST RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW SPOT AND COVER
YOUR HEAD.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3964 9792 3931 9792 3930 9779 3964 9771

$$

000 
WWUS53 KTOP 212318
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
616 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006

KSC029-212326-
/O.EXP.KTOP.TO.W.0026.000000T0000Z-060921T2315Z/
CLOUD-
616 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR WESTERN CLOUD COUNTY HAS EXPIRED...

AT 616 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH THE POSSIBLE TORNADO HAD WEAKENED AND NO
LONGER APPEARED CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES OR OTHER SEVERE
WEATHER...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

RADAR INDICATED THAT HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS WERE
STILL POSSIBLE FROM THE THUNDERSTORM.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3964 9792 3931 9792 3930 9779 3964 9771

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
415 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS VIGOROUS UPPER SYSTEM OVER WESTERN
KANSAS WITH DRY PUNCH EXTENDING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AT 20Z. SURFACE LOW WITH ASSOCIATED DRYLINE
WAS EAST OF DDC WITH MOISTURE TONGUE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. GIVEN
STRONG DYNAMICS...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WILL
KEEP SEVERE THREAT ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA.
AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST HAVE SEEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO FIRE
ALONG DRY PUNCH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. FOR WINDS THE GRADIENT WILL SLIGHTLY
WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND ALONG WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AFTER 00Z...THUS WILL LET THE WINDS
ADVISORY END AT 7 PM.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE CWA IN THE 06 TO 09Z TIME
FRAME TONIGHT AND WILL TAPER OFF THUNDER THREAT AFTER MIDNIGHT. ON
FRIDAY THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT WITH THE GFS AND NAM
SUGGESTING IT WILL EXTEND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TURNPIKE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH MUCAPE IN
THE 2000 J/KG RANGE. UPPER ENERGY WILL EJECT EAST INTO NORTHEAST
KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE POPS INTO THE CHANGE RANGE
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A DRY PUNCH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST CWA IN THE MORNING YIELDING PARTIAL CLEARING. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 35.

AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK...MORE WITH THE GFS AS OPPOSED
TO THE NAM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS FURTHER SOUTH IT IS EXPECTED TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH NOT
AS STRONG AS EARLIER MODELS RUNS HAD INDICATED. HAVE FAVORED THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA FOR A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MORE ISOLATED EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH WITH LESS
INSTABILITY. AGAIN FAVORED THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS MODEL ON QPF. AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH
UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST ACROSS THE CWA...INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO
DECREASE...SO WILL MENTION MAINLY A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

AS UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WILL CONTINUE WITH
A DRY FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. BIGGEST COOLDOWN IN
TEMPS TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO AROUND
70 SOUTHERN CWA. HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH THEN REBOUND BACK INTO THE
MIDDLE 70S AS 850 TEMPS RISE 2 TO 4 DEGREES C AS HEIGHTS RISE AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.  THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY SO HIGHS INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
DEGREES WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

NEXT FRONT TO ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED.
WILL KEEP CWA DRY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND COOLED WEDNESDAYS
HIGHS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 70S TO MIDDLE 70S NORTH WITH MIDDLE 70S
THE THE RULE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...CONTINUE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM
THIS EVENING FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70...
KSZ034>038-054>056-058-059

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
339 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-222045-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
339 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. THE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN HAZARDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF
30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO UP TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. SOME
OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT COULD PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
425 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 5 SW TOPEKA             39.00N 95.74W
09/21/2006                   SHAWNEE            KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            ONE FOOT DIAMETER TREE BLOWN OVER.

&&

BN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
449 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     TORNADO          2 W CULVER              38.97N 97.80W
09/21/2006                   OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL SPOTTERS REPORTED TORNADO.

&&

BN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
516 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     8 SSW JAMESTOWN         39.49N 97.92W
09/21/2006                   CLOUD              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED FUNNEL DISSAPATED.

&&

BN