Tornado Warning 23, NWS Topeka, KS

000 
WWUS53 KTOP 212118
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
418 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006

KSC029-143-212200-
/O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-060921T2200Z/
CLOUD-OTTAWA-
418 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN OTTAWA AND WESTERN CLOUD COUNTIES...

AT 416 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO.  THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ADA...OR ABOUT 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF SALINA...
MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GLASCO AND JAMESTOWN.

IF A TORNADO APPROACHES...GO TO A BASEMENT OR SEEK SHELTER IN A
HALLWAY OR CLOSET ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING. USE BLANKETS
OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR HEAD AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3913 9792 3964 9793 3964 9775 3915 9785

$$

000 
WWUS53 KTOP 212120
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
419 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006

KSC029-143-212200-
/O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-060921T2200Z/
CLOUD-OTTAWA-
419 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN OTTAWA AND WESTERN CLOUD COUNTIES...

AT 418 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO IN 
NORTHEAST LINCOLN COUNTY NEAR BARNARD.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 
MILES NORTHWEST OF ADA...OR ABOUT 29 MILES SOUTHWEST OF 
CONCORDIA...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GLASCO AND JAMESTOWN.

IF A TORNADO APPROACHES...GO TO A BASEMENT OR SEEK SHELTER IN A
HALLWAY OR CLOSET ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING. USE BLANKETS
OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR HEAD AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3913 9792 3964 9793 3964 9775 3915 9785

$$

000 
WWUS53 KTOP 212139
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
437 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006

KSC143-212147-
/O.CAN.KTOP.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-060921T2200Z/
OTTAWA-
437 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN OTTAWA COUNTY HAS 
BEEN CANCELLED...

ANOTHER TORNADO WARNING CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF WESTERN OTTAWA COUNTY 
UNTIL 500 PM. THE TORNADIC STORM IS LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF MINNEAPOLIS 
MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3930 9792 3964 9793 3964 9775 3930 9782

$$

KSC029-212200-
/O.CON.KTOP.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-060921T2200Z/
CLOUD-
437 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR WESTERN
CLOUD COUNTY...

AT 436 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A TORNADO LOCATED NEAR GLASCO...OR ABOUT 18 MILES SOUTHWEST 
OF CONCORDIA...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JAMESTOWN.

IF A TORNADO APPROACHES...GO TO A BASEMENT OR SEEK SHELTER IN A
HALLWAY OR CLOSET ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING. USE BLANKETS
OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR HEAD AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3930 9792 3964 9793 3964 9775 3930 9782

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
458 AM CDT THU SEP 21 2006

.DISCUSSION...

VERY ACTIVE NEXT FEW DAYS AS INTENSE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO PUSHES OUT INTO THE PLAINS...FOLLOW BY
ANOTHER SYSTEMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES...WIND AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALL CHALLENGES.  WATER
VAPOR SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE WRAPPING LOW WITH A NARROW BAND OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA INTO EASTERN
KANSAS.  DEEP LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO HAS STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH OF WINDS.  TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S AT 3 AM WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S.  PROFILERS
SHOWING 45 TO 50KTS OF WIND IN THE LOWER GATES UP TO AROUND H850 MB.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE NIGHT TIME JET DEVELOPED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL KANSAS LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING...WHILE
JUST A BIT LATER...WARM ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT STARTED
DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.  THE CLUSTER OF
STORMS HAS PUSHED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT WITH BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHWEST.

ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALL LEADING TO A DEEP LEVEL OF LIFT.  CONSIDERABLE LIFT
WITH THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO NIGHT TIME
PERIOD.  FOLLOW GENERALLY THE GFS WITH EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM AS IT HAS
HAD THE MOST CONSISTENT TRACK.  EXPECTING A DIURNAL BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT GFS STILL
SHOWING STRONG VERTICAL MOTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.  WITH THE INTENSE SHEAR...AROUND 50KTS THROUGH 6KM...AND
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING INSTABILITY WITH COOLER AIR COMING IN
ALOFT...WILL GIVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS...MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE MODEST 1
TO 1.5 RANGE BUT TRAINING OF STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.  WILL COVER ALL THE ABOVE IN THE HWO.  OTHERWISE FOR THE
DAY...WITH H850 MB WINDS IN THE 50 TO 55 KT RANGE...FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70...THROUGH THE DAY.  THINK CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
WILL HAMPER MIXING NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE.  TOUGH DECISION ON HIGHS
AS ALL THE GUIDANCE LOOKS LOW GIVEN EARLY MORNING TEMPS.  WENT UPPER
60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH AT THIS POINT.

FOR TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH EJECTS EAST AS NEXT SYSTEM WITH A 130KT
JET DIVES DOWN THE PACIFIC COAST.  KEPT LIKELY POPS NORTHEAST DURING
THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DIMINISHING AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE...SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.  LOWS
TONIGHT FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.

ON FRIDAY...GFS SHOWING DRY SLOT ACROSS THE CWA BUT KEPT SOME LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY COULD KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS.  HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER
70S NORTH TO MID TO UPPER 70S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE PLOWS THROUGH THE AREA
OVERRUNNING SURFACE BOUNDARY.  BEST LIFT LOOKS TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY SO WENT WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY EVENING...INCREASING
INTO THE 40 PERCENT RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER WAVE
GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE CWA.  CLOUDS AND PRECIP KEEP TEMPS HOLD
HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT LATER SHIFTS
MAY HAVE TO REFINE THIS IF LOW IS SLOWER TO EXIT.

REST OF WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FORECAST LEFT THE SAME.  DRY.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS.
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S SUNDAY MORNING...BACK TO THE LOW TO MID 50S
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  LATEST GFS HINTING OF ANOTHER BOUNDARY
PUSHING SOUTH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY...SOME FOR
LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY TODAY FROM 7 AM TO
7 PM FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70...
KSZ034>038-054>056-058-059

&&

PF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
339 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-222045-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
339 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. THE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN HAZARDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF
30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO UP TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. SOME
OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT COULD PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS THIS EVENING.