Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
306 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

.DISCUSSION...

STILL ON TRACK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER THE
CWA...AND UPPER LOW IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD OUT OF
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...BOTH OF WHICH ARE DESTABILIZING THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE AREA. INITIAL SURFACE LOW THIS AFTERNOON IS IN
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...HOWEVER PRESSURE FALLS INDICATE SECONDARY SURFACE
LOW  DEVELOPING FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE SURFACE TROF IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. UPPER JET STARTING ITS PROGRESSION EASTWARD INTO OK
ATTM.

UPPER JET SLIDES EASTWARD IN CONCERT WITH DRYLINE...AND WILL AID IN
INITIATION AND STRENGTH OF STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM MOVES EAST.
WITH INSTABILITY INTO THE 1-2.5K RANGE...AND 0-6KM BULK  SHEAR
40-60KTS...SURFACE BASED STORMS WHICH INITIATE SHOULD HAVE NO
PROBLEM BECOMING SEVERE QUICKLY. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE STORMS
WHICH DO DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF THE UPPER JET SOUTH OF THE
AREA...THEN PROPAGATE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH STORM
MOVEMENT OF 50 KTS OR MORE POSSIBLE...CONSIDERING 500 MB WINDS
50-70KTS. AS PRESSURES DROP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...EXPECT TO SEE
SOME BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS...WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE
TORNADO THREAT. STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NORTHWEST OF
WICHITA...AND WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG THE
DRYLINE...AND PROPAGATE EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN THE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS LINE...WHICH WILL ALSO CARRY A
WIND...HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT. STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR DETAILS AS THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER SITUATION
DEVELOPS.

COULD HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR WINDS TOMORROW AS UPPER LOW RETROGRADES
NORTHWARD THEN BACK SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND BRINGS IN MID LEVEL
WINDS GREATER THAN 40KTS. EASTERN AREAS MAY CATCH A BREAK FROM THE
PRECIP EARLY BUT BY DAYS END EXPECT CLOUDY WET AND COOLER
CONDITIONS.

WITH UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY...AND INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST EARLY
EVENING HOURS...WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRECIP FOR FRIDAY
EVENING...ISOLATED THUNDER NEAR LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CWA STILL
POSSIBLE.  THINNING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS ALL BUT FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING.
COOLER...DRIER AIR FILTERING IN...LOWS FROM AROUND 30 NORTHERN
COUNTIES TO MIDDLE 30S EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES.  H850 MB TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS BY 00Z SUN.  HIGHS SATURDAY FROM THE MIDDLE 50S
NORTHEAST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.

RIDGING ALOFT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...FLATTEN SOME BY NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE BUT LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HERE.  AT THE SURFACE...
LEE SIDE TROUGHING TAKING SHAPE...SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNS TO THE
AREA.  HOWEVER ANOTHER COOL START SUNDAY MORNING...LOW TO MID 30S
EAST TO MID TO UPPER 30S FAR WEST...BEFORE TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE
UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY POSES SOME PROBLEMS WITH
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES ON MODELS.  GFS SCENARIO HAS ONE SHORTWAVE
PUSHING SOUTH OF SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND TAKING
DEEPER MOISTURE WITH IT...BUT STILL LAGGING MAIN TROUGH TO THE
WEST.  LATEST ECMWF NOT AS DISTINCT WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE BUT SLOWER
AND STRONGER WITH MAIN SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.  FOR NOW...LEANING TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTION...KEEPING MONDAY DRY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S.  KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY
NIGHT AND WENT MORE WITH CHANCE POPS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S WITH LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 50S TUESDAY...UPPER 40 TO LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  DRY PERIOD.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH...HIGHS
THURSDAY LOWER 70S NORTH TO MIDDLE 70S SOUTH.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

KC/PF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
353 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-071100-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
353 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE IN CENTRAL
KANSAS. ADDITIONALLY A FEW DISCRETE STORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE DRYLINE. ANY OF THESE STORMS CAN QUICKLY BECOME
SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AS LARGE AS 2 TO 4 INCHES IN
DIAMETER...STRONG WINDS 60 TO 80 MPH AND TORNADOES. THESE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
PERSONS SHOULD BE REVIEWING PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...KNOW
WHERE TO TAKE SHELTER AS THIS IS A HIGHLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER EAST CENTRAL AND PARTS OF
NORTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HAIL.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED. PREPARATIONS SHOULD MADE NOW FOR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
613 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

KSZ011-023-024-038-070000-
JACKSON-NEMAHA-POTTAWATOMIE-WABAUNSEE-
613 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NEMAHA...JACKSON...POTTAWATOMIE AND
WABAUNSEE COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

AT 610 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTH OF BELVUE...OR ABOUT 20
MILES EAST OF MANHATTAN...MOVING NORTH AT 55 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
AND HEAVY RAIN.

SOME COMMUNITIES THAT COULD BE IMPACTED INCLUDE BELVUE...ST. MARYS...
EMMETT...SOLDIER...CORNING...WETMORE AND GOFF.

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. THE STORM MAY STRENGTHEN OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL MINUTES. BE READY TO TAKE SHELTER IN CASE A WARNING IS
ISSUED.