Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Topeka, KS

000 
WWUS53 KTOP 062146
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
446 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

KSC041-061-127-062215-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-060406T2215Z/
GEARY-DICKINSON-MORRIS-
446 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN MORRIS...SOUTHEASTERN DICKINSON AND SOUTHERN GEARY
COUNTIES...

AT 441 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BASEBALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HERINGTON...OR ABOUT 23 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF ABILENE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH.

AT 439 PM...60 MPH WINDS WERE REPORTED IN RAMONA IN MARION COUNTY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WOODBINE...WHITE CITY AND JUNCTION CITY.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 289 AND 312.

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE
TORNADOES RAPIDLY.

IF YOU ARE OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A BUILDING AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND DEADLY LIGHTNING
ARE LIKELY IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3907 9695 3906 9657 3860 9683 3860 9716

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
306 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

.DISCUSSION...

STILL ON TRACK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER THE
CWA...AND UPPER LOW IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD OUT OF
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...BOTH OF WHICH ARE DESTABILIZING THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE AREA. INITIAL SURFACE LOW THIS AFTERNOON IS IN
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...HOWEVER PRESSURE FALLS INDICATE SECONDARY SURFACE
LOW  DEVELOPING FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE SURFACE TROF IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. UPPER JET STARTING ITS PROGRESSION EASTWARD INTO OK
ATTM.

UPPER JET SLIDES EASTWARD IN CONCERT WITH DRYLINE...AND WILL AID IN
INITIATION AND STRENGTH OF STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM MOVES EAST.
WITH INSTABILITY INTO THE 1-2.5K RANGE...AND 0-6KM BULK  SHEAR
40-60KTS...SURFACE BASED STORMS WHICH INITIATE SHOULD HAVE NO
PROBLEM BECOMING SEVERE QUICKLY. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE STORMS
WHICH DO DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF THE UPPER JET SOUTH OF THE
AREA...THEN PROPAGATE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH STORM
MOVEMENT OF 50 KTS OR MORE POSSIBLE...CONSIDERING 500 MB WINDS
50-70KTS. AS PRESSURES DROP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...EXPECT TO SEE
SOME BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS...WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE
TORNADO THREAT. STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NORTHWEST OF
WICHITA...AND WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG THE
DRYLINE...AND PROPAGATE EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN THE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS LINE...WHICH WILL ALSO CARRY A
WIND...HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT. STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR DETAILS AS THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER SITUATION
DEVELOPS.

COULD HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR WINDS TOMORROW AS UPPER LOW RETROGRADES
NORTHWARD THEN BACK SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND BRINGS IN MID LEVEL
WINDS GREATER THAN 40KTS. EASTERN AREAS MAY CATCH A BREAK FROM THE
PRECIP EARLY BUT BY DAYS END EXPECT CLOUDY WET AND COOLER
CONDITIONS.

WITH UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY...AND INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST EARLY
EVENING HOURS...WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRECIP FOR FRIDAY
EVENING...ISOLATED THUNDER NEAR LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CWA STILL
POSSIBLE.  THINNING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS ALL BUT FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING.
COOLER...DRIER AIR FILTERING IN...LOWS FROM AROUND 30 NORTHERN
COUNTIES TO MIDDLE 30S EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES.  H850 MB TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS BY 00Z SUN.  HIGHS SATURDAY FROM THE MIDDLE 50S
NORTHEAST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.

RIDGING ALOFT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...FLATTEN SOME BY NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE BUT LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HERE.  AT THE SURFACE...
LEE SIDE TROUGHING TAKING SHAPE...SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNS TO THE
AREA.  HOWEVER ANOTHER COOL START SUNDAY MORNING...LOW TO MID 30S
EAST TO MID TO UPPER 30S FAR WEST...BEFORE TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE
UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY POSES SOME PROBLEMS WITH
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES ON MODELS.  GFS SCENARIO HAS ONE SHORTWAVE
PUSHING SOUTH OF SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND TAKING
DEEPER MOISTURE WITH IT...BUT STILL LAGGING MAIN TROUGH TO THE
WEST.  LATEST ECMWF NOT AS DISTINCT WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE BUT SLOWER
AND STRONGER WITH MAIN SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.  FOR NOW...LEANING TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTION...KEEPING MONDAY DRY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S.  KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY
NIGHT AND WENT MORE WITH CHANCE POPS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S WITH LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 50S TUESDAY...UPPER 40 TO LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY MORNING.

UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  DRY PERIOD.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH...HIGHS
THURSDAY LOWER 70S NORTH TO MIDDLE 70S SOUTH.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

KC/PF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
353 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-071100-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
353 PM CDT THU APR 6 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE IN CENTRAL
KANSAS. ADDITIONALLY A FEW DISCRETE STORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE DRYLINE. ANY OF THESE STORMS CAN QUICKLY BECOME
SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AS LARGE AS 2 TO 4 INCHES IN
DIAMETER...STRONG WINDS 60 TO 80 MPH AND TORNADOES. THESE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
PERSONS SHOULD BE REVIEWING PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...KNOW
WHERE TO TAKE SHELTER AS THIS IS A HIGHLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER EAST CENTRAL AND PARTS OF
NORTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HAIL.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED. PREPARATIONS SHOULD MADE NOW FOR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
408 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TORNADO          5 SW MANCHESTER         39.04N 97.39W
04/06/2006                   OTTAWA             KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            BRIEF TOUCHDOWN REPORTED

&&

BYRNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
411 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0403 PM     TORNADO          9 SE BENNINGTON         38.94N 97.48W
04/06/2006                   SALINE             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BRIEF TOUCHDOWN REPORTED 3 MILES EAST OF NILES AT THE
            INTERSECTIONS OF 280TH AND ASPEN. SHED REPORTED
            DESTROYED.

&&

BYRNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
412 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0403 PM     HAIL             14 E MINNEAPOLIS        39.12N 97.45W
04/06/2006  E1.00 INCH       OTTAWA             KS   AIRPLANE PILOT

&&

BYRNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
413 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0411 PM     TORNADO          MANCHESTER              39.09N 97.32W
04/06/2006                   DICKINSON          KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF MANCHESTER

&&

BYRNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
415 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0414 PM     TORNADO          1 E LONGFORD            39.17N 97.31W
04/06/2006                   CLAY               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

BYRNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
427 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0424 PM     TORNADO          9 SW CLAY CENTER        39.28N 97.24W
04/06/2006                   CLAY               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTED AT THE INSTERSECTION 9TH ROAD AND JAYHAWK AND
            KIOWA ROADS MOVING NORTH.

&&

BYRNE