Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Great Falls, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
230 PM MDT SUN JUN 4 2006

.DISCUSSION...
A PACIFIC COOL FRONT IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL CREATE AN ACTIVE WEATHER
NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA AT
2 PM...AND THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
MONTANA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. CURRENT THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR SOUTHWEST AND A PORTION OF CENTRAL MONTANA...WHILE A NEW
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS LIKELY TO BE ISSUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY THIS EVENING FOR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA AND
PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO GRADUALLY COME TO
AND END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
COOL TOWARDS FORECASTED LOWS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHEN SOME CLEARING
TAKES PLACE.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO RESIDE OVER THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. A NEW UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS RIDGE WILL ALLOW
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY WARM BACKUP INTO THE MID 80S...(OR
CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) BY TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
COOL NICELY DO TO DRY AIR IN PLACE. RIGHT NOW THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO
STABLE AND DRY FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT A VERY ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS MID WEAK.
BRUSDA

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST. RETURN TO A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. WARM TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A
WET AND COOLING TREND FOR FRIDAY. CAMP

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT DURING THIS
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY. MOST OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM GOES
NORTH OF THE AREA. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MOST AREAS. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT SUNDAY DRIES ALL BUT THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WHERE A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES COOL A FEW DEGREES BUT REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES. EK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1803Z
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA IS UNDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
UNTIL 00Z. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA
AND WILL BE MOVING INTO CENTRAL MONTANA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS. GUSTS TO 60KTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THUNDERSTORMS BUT
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  79  48  82 /  60   0   0   0
CTB  47  77  47  80 /  70   0   0   0
HLN  51  83  51  88 /  60   0  10  10
BZN  49  81  44  86 /  50   0   0   0
WEY  37  76  38  78 /  30   0   0  10
DLN  48  79  46  84 /  30   0   0   0
HVR  53  84  51  87 /  80   0   0   0
LWT  51  79  48  82 /  90   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MONTANA AND ALL OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA...

&&

SHORT TERM...BRUSDA
LONG TERM...CAMP/EK/ZELZER
AVIATION...ZELZER

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
930 AM MDT SUN JUN 4 2006

MTZ008>015-044>055-051200-
BEAVERHEAD-NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN GLACIER-HILL-
CASCADE-CHOUTEAU-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK-MADISON-
TOOLE-LIBERTY-EASTERN PONDERA-BLAINE-
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN TETON-JUDITH BASIN-FERGUS-
JEFFERSON-BROADWATER-MEAGHER-GALLATIN-
930 AM MDT SUN JUN 4 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OF NORTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST NORTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN THE
EVENING...WITH THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREATS BEING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
OCCUR IS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON...UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

BRUSDA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
318 PM MDT SUN JUN 04 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0309 PM     TSTM WND GST     12 W HELENA             46.60N 112.27W
06/04/2006  M52.00 MPH       LEWIS AND CLARK    MT   MESONET

&&

BRUSDA