Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

000 
WWUS52 KTBW 272128
SVSTBW

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
528 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

FLC081-115-272145-
/O.CON.KTBW.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-060727T2145Z/
MANATEE-SARASOTA-
528 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN SARASOTA AND WESTERN MANATEE COUNTIES...

AT 528 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES EAST OF BRADENTON...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT
15 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LAKE MANATEE STATE PARK.
  SAMOSET.
  DESOTO LAKES.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...
  NICKEL SIZE HAIL.
  EXCESSIVE AND DEADLY CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 2762 8224 2762 8250 2753 8267 2717 8249
      2721 8229

$$

13

000 
WWUS52 KTBW 272147
SVSTBW

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
546 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

FLC081-115-272156-
/O.EXP.KTBW.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-060727T2145Z/
MANATEE-SARASOTA-
546 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN SARASOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN MANATEE COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

AT 546 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THE 
THUNDERSTORM HAD WEAKENED AND WAS NO LONGER SEVERE...THUS THE WARNING
HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY 
WINDS WERE STILL POSSIBLE FROM A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS COVERING
MUCH OF MANATEE AND SARASOTA COUNTIES.

STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER
INFORMATION.

&&

LAT...LON 2762 8224 2762 8250 2753 8267 2717 8249
      2721 8229

$$

57

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1258 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-SAT)...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVED OVER
FLORIDA OVERNIGHT CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWEST PUSHING DRIER MORE
STABLE AIR OVER NORTH FLORIDA. GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT
DIFFERENT WITH NAM CONSOLIDATING PRECIP INTO A NARROW BAND OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT WITH NORTHWARD MOVEMENT FRIDAY. WILL LEAN TO
A MORE GENERALIZED SOLUTION AT THIS TIME WITH AFTERNOON
PRECIPITATION BECOMING ISOLATED OVERNIGHT AND EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WITH RIDGE AXIS JUST NORTH OF TAMPA BAY TOMORROW WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION TOWARD THE WEST COAST. FOR SATURDAY SIMILAR FLOW AND
CONVECTION WITH RIDGE AXIS JUST NORTH OF TAMPA BAY. IN SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR TONIGHT LOW TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NORTH
ZONES OTHERWISE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM (SAT NGT-THU)...MODELS BEGIN THE PERIOD IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC RIDGING WEST ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL OR NORTH FL. THE ECMWF/UKMET MAINTAINS THIS RIDGE
THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE GFS DEVELOPS A WAVE/LOW EAST
OF THE BAHAMAS MON THAT COULD BE EAST OF FL BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD WHILE THE DGEX MOVES A WAVE ACROSS SOUTH FL LATE SUN OR
EARLY MON AND INTO THE GULF TUE WITH A SECOND WAVE MOVING OVER THE
BAHAMAS WED AND OFFSHORE FL THU. FOR NOW WILL BASE THIS FORECAST
ON THE RIDGE AXIS STAYING OVER OR NORTH OF THE NORTH CWFA WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE SCATTERED RANGE
AFTERNOONS AND ISOLATED IN THE EVENINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS GENERALLY EAST 15 KT OR LESS WITH AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES NEAR THE COAST AND SEAS AROUND 2FT THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ATTM WITH SCT MID CLDS AND SCT V BKN CI ABOVE.
ALTHOUGH KRSW DID SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR CIG. CURRENT TAFS VFR WITH CB
AND/OR VCTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO ONSHORE IN THE
SEA BREEZE. BASED ON RECENT STLT/RADAR TRENDS WILL KEEP 18Z TAFS
SIMILAR. CONVECTION WILL END AROUND 00Z AS WINDS SHIFT BACK TO A
LIGHT LAND BREEZE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WX CONCERNS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  90  76  92 /  20  40  20  40
FMY  75  90  75  91 /  20  40  30  40
GIF  76  91  76  92 /  20  40  20  40
SRQ  75  90  75  92 /  20  40  20  40
BKV  72  90  73  92 /  20  40  20  40
SPG  78  90  79  91 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
319 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-271800-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
319 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. HEAVY DOWNPOURS...FREQUENT TO
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES. HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL CAUSE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. NEVER CROSS
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT
TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS..AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
216 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

FLZ050-271845-
PINELLAS-
216 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT COASTAL PINELLAS COUNTY...

A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT
DUNEDIN...HONEYMOON AND CALEDESI ISLAND...UNTIL 245 PM EDT. GUSTY
WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR
DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED IF OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW
SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. IF INDOORS...REFRAIN FROM USING
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS
EXPECTED. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR.
MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING
OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

RJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
229 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

FLZ062-271915-
CHARLOTTE-
229 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL AND WESTERN CHARLOTTE
COUNTY...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT
TUCKERS CORNER AND BABCOCK RANCH...UNTIL 315 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM
TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL
RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

JCM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
240 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

FLZ049-271930-
PASCO-
240 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG SOUTH CENTRAL PASCO
COUNTY...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER ABOUT 5
MILES SOUTH OF WESLEY CHAPEL...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH. RESIDENTS IN
PASCO COUNTY MAY SEE GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH THAT WILL CAUSE LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS
ALSO POSSIBLE. EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED IF
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. IF
INDOORS...REFRAIN FROM USING ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. HAIL UP TO ONE
HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED. IF THE STORM BUILDS INTO PASCO
COUNTY...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED.

RJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
307 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

FLZ050-051-271945-
PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-
307 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWEST HILLSBOROUGH AND
NORTHERN PINELLAS COUNTIES...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT
OLDSMAR...SAFETY HARBOR...PALM HARBOR AND DUNEDIN...UNTIL 345 PM
EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW
SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA SIZE
HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND
MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION.

JCM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
425 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

FLZ052-272115-
POLK-
425 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN POLK COUNTY...

THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...WILL AFFECT EAST
LAKELAND...MULBERRY...CRYSTAL LAKE...UNTIL 515 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR. EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED IF OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL
OBJECTS. IF INDOORS...REFRAIN FROM USING ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. HAIL
UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY
TRAVEL.

STORMS OVER THE TAMPA BAY AREA HAVE COME IN WITH LARGE HAIL EARLIER
IN THE DAY. IF THE STORMS OVER POLK COUNTY STRENGTHEN FURTHER...A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING MAY BE ISSUED. STAY TUNED.

RJS