Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1258 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-SAT)...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVED OVER
FLORIDA OVERNIGHT CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWEST PUSHING DRIER MORE
STABLE AIR OVER NORTH FLORIDA. GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT
DIFFERENT WITH NAM CONSOLIDATING PRECIP INTO A NARROW BAND OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT WITH NORTHWARD MOVEMENT FRIDAY. WILL LEAN TO
A MORE GENERALIZED SOLUTION AT THIS TIME WITH AFTERNOON
PRECIPITATION BECOMING ISOLATED OVERNIGHT AND EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WITH RIDGE AXIS JUST NORTH OF TAMPA BAY TOMORROW WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION TOWARD THE WEST COAST. FOR SATURDAY SIMILAR FLOW AND
CONVECTION WITH RIDGE AXIS JUST NORTH OF TAMPA BAY. IN SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR TONIGHT LOW TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NORTH
ZONES OTHERWISE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM (SAT NGT-THU)...MODELS BEGIN THE PERIOD IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC RIDGING WEST ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL OR NORTH FL. THE ECMWF/UKMET MAINTAINS THIS RIDGE
THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE GFS DEVELOPS A WAVE/LOW EAST
OF THE BAHAMAS MON THAT COULD BE EAST OF FL BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD WHILE THE DGEX MOVES A WAVE ACROSS SOUTH FL LATE SUN OR
EARLY MON AND INTO THE GULF TUE WITH A SECOND WAVE MOVING OVER THE
BAHAMAS WED AND OFFSHORE FL THU. FOR NOW WILL BASE THIS FORECAST
ON THE RIDGE AXIS STAYING OVER OR NORTH OF THE NORTH CWFA WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE SCATTERED RANGE
AFTERNOONS AND ISOLATED IN THE EVENINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS GENERALLY EAST 15 KT OR LESS WITH AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES NEAR THE COAST AND SEAS AROUND 2FT THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ATTM WITH SCT MID CLDS AND SCT V BKN CI ABOVE.
ALTHOUGH KRSW DID SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR CIG. CURRENT TAFS VFR WITH CB
AND/OR VCTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO ONSHORE IN THE
SEA BREEZE. BASED ON RECENT STLT/RADAR TRENDS WILL KEEP 18Z TAFS
SIMILAR. CONVECTION WILL END AROUND 00Z AS WINDS SHIFT BACK TO A
LIGHT LAND BREEZE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WX CONCERNS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  90  76  92 /  20  40  20  40
FMY  75  90  75  91 /  20  40  30  40
GIF  76  91  76  92 /  20  40  20  40
SRQ  75  90  75  92 /  20  40  20  40
BKV  72  90  73  92 /  20  40  20  40
SPG  78  90  79  91 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
319 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-271800-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
319 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. HEAVY DOWNPOURS...FREQUENT TO
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES. HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL CAUSE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. NEVER CROSS
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT
TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS..AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
216 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

FLZ050-271845-
PINELLAS-
216 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT COASTAL PINELLAS COUNTY...

A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT
DUNEDIN...HONEYMOON AND CALEDESI ISLAND...UNTIL 245 PM EDT. GUSTY
WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR
DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED IF OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW
SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. IF INDOORS...REFRAIN FROM USING
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS
EXPECTED. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR.
MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING
OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

RJS